In-Game Win Probability


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tunesmith said...
By the way, one other effect of "intangibles" is that the threat of Tebow running led San Diego to try a defensive strategy of NOT rushing Tebow when he dropped back to pass. Strange. Tebow proved that when he's given a lot of time to pass, he can do some damage.


tunesmith said...
2:41 remaining in regulation. Why is a 2-yard run by McGahee on 1st-and-10 worth +0.17 ? It seems the previous play should be worth more instead. It looks like in general in that situation, 2nd down is more valuable than 1st down.


MarkB said...
Even as nuanced (and complicated) a measurement as this does not cover everything. Beyond the impact of Tebow's choices on RB play, his leadership in the locker room, in practices and in the huddle elevates the play of those around him. They call his greatest asset "intangibles", because they defy measurement. Tebow is not the only reason the Broncos are winning (nor is he a great quarterback), but your system's analysis indicating that he's a detriment to the team is wrong.


christopher said...
@ tunesmith Tebow threw pretty well today but he ran a lot, and was pretty ineffective doing that. Though like you say he is partially responsible for McGahee's good play.


tunesmith said...
Tebow looked better in the passing game today. Surprised to see that he has a negative WPA again. Although you have to keep in mind that WPA doesn't take into account his option decisions, so you could argue that some of McGahee's WPA is Tebow's. I love checking out these graphs and the supporting game log every week. Although Brian, not sure if you already know that your xml files have missing plays?


Brian said...
sunrise-Why do you say that--'circle the wagons'? For everyone's information, I LOVE the Tebow thing. I think he breaks the mold, changes things up. It's innovative. I love his attitude. Makes things unpredictable. I think defenses will eventually figure out how to contain him better, but I still love it. By the way, the stats DO capture what you're talking about. Just look at his net WPA.


Brian said...
I HATE ties. They screw up all my numbers.


sunrise089 said...
"If a great player is also a great leader who inspires his teammates to play better, that will be reflected in his team’s statistics. It may not be captured in his personal stats, but that has always been true of the effects of teammates on one another’s performance, whether tangible or intangible." - Brian Burke According to the NYT game probabilities Denver had a .5% chance of winning against Miami, Oakland, Kansas City, the Jets, and San Diego. I'm sure "winning five of six" would be higher, but still pretty dang low. Yes there's examples like Atlanta of last year, but Atlanta last year didn't have people who actually interacted with the QB (rather than only looking at film) say things like "this guy will find a way to win and inspire those around him" before the first start. I love this site Brian, and I plug it to everyone I know who follows the NFL. I do feel there is a bit of a "circle the wagons" mentality with Tebow though.


Jonathan said...
I was actively rooting for the tie.


Brian said...
That was awful and awesome. The "FG Range" myth strikes again.


James said...
Well if you think that icing the kicker has any effect, saving that timeout won't do you any good if the kicker makes it. Use your bullets.
2:31 in OT

Jonathan said...
YOU CALL TIMEOUT WITH UNDER THREE MINUTES TO GO?!
2:36 in OT

Denver said...
Oops.
2:36 in OT

Jonathan said...
Norv Turner. Crosses the magical "FG range line" and calls three conservative running plays.
4:08 in OT

James said...
If Tebow wins now he'll be hailed as clutch, even though he was only able to tie the game in regulation and wasn't able to win in OT on the first drive.
10:43 in OT

Tim Tebow said...
Tebowtime.
15:00 in OT

Tim Tebow said...
I got this.
12:33 in the 4th qtr





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