In-Game Win Probability
test


Name:

Comment:


Refresh comments


Pete said...
So Brian, it seems like Denver had the perfect game plan in that they knew they were the underdog and knew they had to take chances to make it a high variance game. So --they squeak out the win or get blown out.. Tebow just chucks it down the field a bunch of times. Meanwhile Pittsburgh should have played the favorite game plan and been more conservative on defense and force Denver to string first downs together, rather than the aggressive style that left openings down field.


Brian said...
Oh, I see what you're saying. Yes. Instead of starting at 0.6 or so, they're starting at 0.55. (roughly) Good point.


tunesmith said...
Yes, but from the same starting point? I was just thinking, maybe a team starting from the 20 at the beginning of overtime has a slightly lower WPA with the new overtime rules, since a field goal wouldn't guarantee a win.


Brian said...
Good question, but I think it would be the same. That play would result in a 1.00 WP under either set of rules.


tunesmith said...
Wow. Is that 0.99 WPA accurate, given that the model thinks it's using the old overtime rules? Maybe the new rules would knock him over 1.00.


dWj said...
This WP graph is a thing of beauty.


Sampo said...
0.99 WPA for Tebow.


GTW said...
What happened? The internet exploded...


@StevenKerwood said...
Is Brian Hoyer a FA too?


@StevenKerwood said...
ARZ OL needs to be fixed too


@Brady Quinn said...
I hear the Cardinals love to pay for mediocre backups ;)


David S said...
I guess I'm just disappointed that I get to suffer through another week of Tebow-mania. I don't know what's worse: that, or that my roommate is both a Giants fan and a Packers fan and will be going nuts this next weekend.


Brady Quinn said...
Can I get a trade please?


@StevenKerwood said...
No wild card teams made it out of wild card weekend either


@StevenKerwood said...
Tebow completes 4 passes of 40+ yds. against a Steelers D that had allowed 2 such completions in the entire reg. season.


J.B. said...
I'm out. Didn't comment much, but I followed this thread all game. Enjoy the rest of your evening, folks!


Brian said...
No, you can't go for that long of a FG because a block would be too easy with just a low launch angle. The risk of a return might be larger than the chance of making it.


James said...
@David S - College rules put even more emphasis on field goals and are advantageous to the second team (they 100% know what they need), while being very unfair to defense and special teams. I like NFL overtime rules, but they should simplify the rules to lead and possession, with defensive scores counting as both.


@StevenKerwood said...
Im pro-Andy Reid


J.B. said...
For the record: I'm pro-McDaniels.


@StevenKerwood said...
That Tebow TD was the longest in OT NFL History


GodHimself said...
Tebow Tyme?


David S said...
Brian, will we be getting an analysis of the final play of regulation? Should they have gone for the field goal?


David said...
I know thats what I am saying.... McDaniels must be a good talent evaluator, he put alot of those players on that team.


@StevenKerwood said...
Tim tebow doesnt get enough credit for his Rushing productivity


J.B. said...
David - McDaniels also drafted Thomas. And Ayers. This is why you don't judge players in their rookie years.


David S said...
The NFL overtime rules suck, in my opinion. I think that the college football rules have the ideal set up. Both teams have an equal opportunity to win from the start. In the NFL, losing the coin flip could be game-over. They should each have the same opportunity. By the way, yes, I was rooting for the Steelers. I am not a Steelers fan, nor do I hate the Broncos. I don't have any stake in any NFL team whatsoever. I only even watched this game because my roommate is big on the NFL. For the record, I don't hate Tebow either. I hate Tebow-mania.


@StevenKerwood said...
not a fan of PFT either I use this site Football outsiders and pro football focus thats it for football hockey is behind the net only basketball is hoopdata and 82games only baseball fangraphs


Brian said...
So the guy who drafted Tebow and got fired is now an assistant coach on the Broncos' opponent next week? There's something Greek-tradgedy about that.


David said...
How many 1-4 teams make it to the Divisional Round of the Playoffs??????


Justin said...
The NFL needs to designate some pre-season games to have the playoff OT rules instead of the 4th quarter. I think the NFL needs to get an idea how this would really work in practice...


Matt said...
How boring; no wild-card teams left.


KenR said...
Tebow v Yates in AFC Championship Game???


KenR said...
Tebow v Yates in AFC Championship Game???


@StevenKerwood said...
I know probabliity of having a run of 30 yards or more is 1% I wonder what the probability of a pass play for a TD of that distance plus adding in OT and first play factor


Mike B said...
Jesus vs. Satan in Foxboro. Can't wait.


David said...
ESPN is a joke, they don't tell news you can get faster and more accurate news from PFT or others than them.


Sunrise089 said...
Aww happy John Fox and fake happy Elway ;)


PIT said...
See that, kids. Eat your vegetables. Don't do drugs. Say your prayers every night. And you too can burn the Steelers secondary on the first play in OT.


Justin said...
aside from MNF, I don't watch BSPN at all, and I don't miss it either.


@StevenKerwood said...
speaking of ESPN the more and more I learn about sports in depth the less I like ESPN


David said...
I guess Tebow is the qb of DEN next year lol! WOW, i guess Josh McDaniels is smarter than he looks? !!! :)


Jorge said...
Wow! Guess I can't watch ESPN for a month or so now...


David said...
WOW........... Guess the WP graph was wrong for the first play... lol WOW....


Matt said...
These new OT rules suck.
14:49 in OT

Mike B said...
Thanks God. Those new rules are stupid.
14:49 in OT

@StevenKerwood said...
I kinda wish we could of seen a FG
14:49 in OT

James said...
It took longer to explain the rules than it did to end the game!
14:49 in OT

Matt said...
Everybody, get down on one knee.
14:49 in OT

KenR said...
Wow!
14:49 in OT

Sunrise said...
OMG!...Um...told you so? ;)
15:00 in OT

@STevenKerwood said...
OT winner on first play WOW
15:00 in OT

Walker said...
Well, that was anticlimactic...
15:00 in OT

Justin said...
well so much for all that spec!
15:00 in OT

wangtangkiki said...
FUCK YES!!! GO BRONCOS!
15:00 in OT

KenR said...
Sorry, .39. Why not closer to .5?
15:00 in OT

Brian said...
OMG!!!
15:00 in OT

Matt said...
WOW.
15:00 in OT

David said...
OH MY GOD!
15:00 in OT

Justin said...
Simpler way to write these rules, first to 6 wins. It's not exactly what they drew up, but what they should have.
15:00 in OT

Brian said...
Also, don't try a very long FG on your 1st possession. It's better to punt where otherwise you'd kick the FG or go for it. 1. If you miss, now the opponent gets great field position. 2. And even if you make it, you invite your opponent to use all 4 downs to get down the field. Then they can either kick a FG to tie or get a TD for the win.
15:00 in OT

@Matt said...
Good point. They still run the clock 15 min quarters, hypothetically, there would still be another half-time after the 2nd OT
15:00 in OT

Willy said...
OT is 15 minutes, 3 TO
15:00 in OT

@StevenKerwood said...
i got .39 for DEN
15:00 in OT

Matt said...
OT is un-timed?
15:00 in OT

Jorge said...
Denver wants it first because if they score a TD they win... I think. Also for all the arguing, Tebow has played a very good game.
15:00 in OT

KenR said...
Am I seeing the graph correctly. .69 for Den going into OT?
15:00 in OT

Walker said...
I love how the ref said that both teams would get the opportunity to possess the ball, then explain several scenarios where that wouldn't happen.
15:00 in OT

Dan said...
So what happens to the graph if DEN gets a FG on their first drive? It goes to 100 and then back down?
15:00 in OT

Zach said...
If DEN kicks off Pit can score a TD and end it
15:00 in OT

Matt said...
Justin, I'm not so sure. I think the fact that a touchdown drive by the first team to get the ball can't be ignored. It's a game-ender.
15:00 in OT

David said...
Brian - didn't you do an analysis on the probability of not moving the ball at all if you get the ball first in OT?
15:00 in OT

Brian said...
You still want it first. It's just not that big of an advantage.
15:00 in OT

@StevenKerwood said...
I would run a lot more option plays here going at James Harrison seems like hes been biting all night
15:00 in OT

Sunrise089 said...
Heh, referee has to be really careful with his words :) @Brian - what do we do without graphs? How will we even know who won?!
0:00 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
Yes, regular rules.
0:00 in the 4th qtr

David said...
DEN should kick........... WHY would they want it first?
0:00 in the 4th qtr

James said...
Brian, a thought about your comment on Champ - are pass deflections on deep passes worth more EPA and WPA than short passes? Or perhaps more because those passes are more often incomplete?
0:00 in the 4th qtr

Andrew said...
Forget all the arguing, this has been one of the beautifully exciting games I've seen in a long time.
0:00 in the 4th qtr

Walker said...
Can't wait to see how this affects things.
0:00 in the 4th qtr

David S said...
With how thin the air is at the altitude, I think that a field goal at that distance is definitely possible. Likely? No, but that comes down to accuracy, not range.
0:00 in the 4th qtr

David said...
So what is built in now? The regular rules?
0:00 in the 4th qtr

Sunrise said...
@Steven - for sure. The underdog advantage is/was getting the ball first and then kicking.
0:00 in the 4th qtr

Justin said...
So the toss winner should defer here right?
0:00 in the 4th qtr

Matt said...
Wow, announcer is quick with the OT trivia.
0:00 in the 4th qtr

Jorge said...
Aw, I wanted the Steelers to test Sim's claims and attempt a 66 or so yarder.
0:00 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
Crap. I don't have the new rules built into the live graph yet. I've got the model built. It's just not incorporated into the code here.
0:00 in the 4th qtr

TMK said...
Now what!?
0:00 in the 4th qtr

David said...
YES! See even God wants an over time in the new format lol........
0:00 in the 4th qtr

@StevenKerwood said...
Im guessing these rules will help out PIT more then DEN
0:00 in the 4th qtr

David said...
@Sunrise, no i am in agreement with you, i never have heard it either..... They do say that...
0:12 in the 4th qtr

Matt said...
All right, all he has to do is make the longest field goal ever. What, no? Terrible.
0:12 in the 4th qtr

@StevenKerwood said...
Wonder if we get to see the new playoff rule take effect tonght
0:12 in the 4th qtr

Sunrise089 said...
@David - I just meant what Jorge said below. Commentators always seem to insist kickers have infinite range Pre-game.
0:17 in the 4th qtr

David said...
Brian- could you use past predictions and graphs to figure out how they regress to "cease to matter as the game goes on"?
0:17 in the 4th qtr

James said...
Big play by Champ Bailey - that would have given them a shot at a long field goal!
0:29 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
Baily just earned himself some +WPA there.
0:29 in the 4th qtr

David said...
@Sunrise to me if you miss a pre game kick with no pressure you got problems.... lol
0:29 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
Right. The trick is how to gradually incorporate the fact that pre-game biases of team strength gradually cease to matter as the game goes on.
0:29 in the 4th qtr

Jorge said...
Sims seems to be suggesting both kickers can make 70 yard field goals. That seems like a bit much
0:29 in the 4th qtr

Sunrise089 said...
No commentator has ever claimed to see a kicker miss a Pre-game kick ;)
0:33 in the 4th qtr

David said...
I second Mike L's comment about two different graphs.....
0:33 in the 4th qtr

Matt said...
The closer to the end of the game, the more WP would adhere to an "average" game, wouldn't it?
0:33 in the 4th qtr

Mike L said...
Brian, how about a "biased" WPA graph, where the WPA is weighted by the original prediction? It'd be interesting to look at the difference between the two and the frequency of comebacks.
0:33 in the 4th qtr

David said...
Yep, he better fix his mechanics.... I think Tomlin wants an OT game lol
1:37 in the 4th qtr

Matt said...
Come on, overtime! Let's see some crazy tactics!
1:37 in the 4th qtr

Sunrise089 said...
Not looking too good. I'm guessing it was still better to go for it there?
1:37 in the 4th qtr

KenR said...
THAT was a high leverage play.
1:37 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
That incomplete pass was the play of the game. With all respect to Tebow fans, that kind of inaccuracy will doom him in the long run. Your average NFL passer makes that pass.
1:37 in the 4th qtr

Mike B said...
That incompletion really hurt Tebow's WPA.
1:37 in the 4th qtr

Jorge said...
Tebow choking again... :P
1:37 in the 4th qtr

Jay said...
I've always wondered about the value of time outs. The Bears have been AWFUL this season about burning second half time-outs on delay of game prevention and things of that nature. It makes me cringe because it seems so intuitive to me that a time out would be more valuable at the end of the game than the 5 yards now.
2:00 in the 4th qtr

Mike B said...
Wonder how John Elway's feeling right now. My guess is "conflicted".
2:00 in the 4th qtr

David said...
I just find it amazing that it is still that stacked against them..... (PIT)
2:00 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
Short answer-yes.
2:00 in the 4th qtr

David said...
Why does the model still think DEN wins 71% when it is tied..... Is it really that large of a premium just because they have the ball with this much time left?
2:00 in the 4th qtr

David said...
He owed Ben that TD catch after the one he blew earlier this game that was so easy on the wide open crossing pattern.
3:48 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
I agree. It gets so incredibly complex though.
3:48 in the 4th qtr

David said...
Sunrise- I agree, I think Tebow will be good. His problem is as follows: Throwing mechanics, footwork (form of mechanics), body control when throwing on the run (for more accuracy). Honestly, with his work ethic and intelligence, not something he can't fix. He basically needs time, opportunity and someone who is good at teaching those things and he is going to be amazing........
3:48 in the 4th qtr

Dylan said...
Stupid Steelers, they gave Tebow too much time to epicclutch
3:48 in the 4th qtr

Sampo said...
A dumb timeout by the Steelers.
3:56 in the 4th qtr

Tom said...
It would be really fantastic if the WP graphs incorporated remaining timeouts btw.
3:56 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
Yes, I've looked at WP values of timeouts extensively, but I haven't published it yet. There are just so many permutations of score, time, and # of timeouts that every situation is unique. One thing I know is that 2nd half timeouts in a 1-score game are precious.
4:04 in the 4th qtr

sunrise089 said...
Brian, I read your response and I thank you for it. I'll try to tone down my Tebow love since I also think I got my point across even if most still disagree. To an extent I feel like a believer (Tebow reference!) being branded a heretic by a disciple since I'm right with you on 99% of the stuff here.
4:04 in the 4th qtr

David said...
Brian, have you ever done analysis on the value a time out? Might not be possible just wondering.... Share the light air story, would be interesting.....
7:35 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
Sunrise made a fair point. I can understand how what I write might come across. I hope I gave a fair answer.
7:35 in the 4th qtr

James said...
I bet they challenged it because it's an important play and it was pretty close. I'd say 0.15 WPA is worth a timeout and your last challenge.
7:35 in the 4th qtr

David said...
Maybe they challenged to slow the game down to try to dampen the momentum change and energy from the play...... Like when the Giants played like they were hurt earlier this year during a hurry up offense to get time to sub players lol
7:43 in the 4th qtr

sunrise089 said...
@4:29 in the 3rd Anon - Thanks for being willing to use your real (fake online) name when you're throwing stones. I'm very sorry that my ~6/100 posts in this thread have derailed it for you, and I'm also sorry it's apparently so difficult to just read past what I type...My sense was that when Brian posted a link to this chat on the homepage and invited discussion on Tebow being pulled that said discussion was fair game. @Jorge+David together - That's fine, but David made his own post about how ANS was positive on Tebow, I just offered my rebuttal. And, if the claim is that the site is biased for or against a player I think frequency of posts is relevant. Say Brian ended every post he made with "Tom Brady is the best QB ever," that wouldn't necessarily lack insight, but it would suggest Brian wasn't being objective. @Dylan - I agree, I'd love to see an alternate design that either starts at something other than 50/50 or that does but also considers expected performance as non-league-average. So if the Packers and the Colts played this year and Indy got up 7-0 the model would normally say 68% or whatever but could instead say 60% since the Packers would have a larger expected chance of coming back. @David telling me to "let it go" - You made 3-4 posts directed at or referring to me after I made my last post ;)
7:43 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
Bad challenge. This is going to be a tight game. Save the timeout.
8:25 in the 4th qtr

David said...
wow.. fumble when everything is going like it is for DEN is huge.... wow.....
8:25 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
I did an analysis of Navy's 4th downs before last season. But that's it. /break/ Yes, the altitude in Denver makes the air much thinner, greatly reducing friction on balls. I've got a great story about that I'll tell one day.
8:25 in the 4th qtr

David said...
Brian, have you ever looked at college data.... Might be interesting to see how that looked... I love the read option, so hard to defend if you aren't disciplined.....
9:59 in the 4th qtr

tMk said...
Dumb geico commercials
9:59 in the 4th qtr

David said...
Brian - does the light air make it easier to kick? Being a pilot figured you might know....
9:59 in the 4th qtr

David said...
Phil's not a single kickoff in a playoff game stat is the smartest thing he has said in years on tv..
9:59 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
Kick offs should be from the 20 in Denver.
9:59 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
JR-If you want to borrow my Ravens Fan Conspiracy Tin Foil Hat, I've got an extra.
9:59 in the 4th qtr

David said...
If he misses that kick, he may end up collecting 99 weeks of unemployment....... lol
9:59 in the 4th qtr

Dylan said...
Lolnope
10:03 in the 4th qtr

Dylan said...
I bet they miss the kick
10:57 in the 4th qtr

David said...
Do you notice he doesn't even really walk with a limp during this drive..........
10:57 in the 4th qtr

Matt said...
I wonder if we're going to break out the new OT rules for this game. Break ALL the WP models!
11:06 in the 4th qtr

David said...
So Big Ben can't run around all game, now he is running like he isn't even hurt lol, a shot and adrenaline really do make people super human for a few hours..
11:06 in the 4th qtr

Jorge said...
Maybe there can be some experimental WP graph adjusted for pre-game odds? The reasons for the graphs starting at 50-50 have been discussed and I agree with them, but I still find myself "mentally adjusting" the WP to reflect the strength of the teams.
13:10 in the 4th qtr

David said...
It would be great if they had a Geico commercial where the INS asked him for his papers.... lol
13:10 in the 4th qtr

dWj said...
4th and 14 from the 17 is the right time to kick.
13:10 in the 4th qtr

Dylan said...
@Willy - the pregame odds
13:10 in the 4th qtr

David said...
The lions blown call last night was really bad too, cost them 7 pts... 21-7 over 14-7 can really make a difference......
13:10 in the 4th qtr

Mike B said...
Geico caveman, I hate you so much.
13:10 in the 4th qtr

Matt said...
@Willy, I assume he'd use Brian's pre-game odds, the same ones he posts at NYT.
13:10 in the 4th qtr

J.R. said...
@Chris, I'd LOVE to see the amount of WP "help" a team got from the officials. It would be time-intensive in most cases, but perhaps for big games like this, we could draw up the before-and-after WP numbers for each challenged play?
13:10 in the 4th qtr

David said...
@ Jorge, tell the Anon(s) and Sunrise to let it go... I have...... They can't stop talking about it......
13:10 in the 4th qtr

Willy said...
Dylan - How would you determine how much a team is favored by? Vegas odds?
13:10 in the 4th qtr

Jorge said...
C'mon guys... I viewed Brian's comment as just a little joke, but can we move on?
13:14 in the 4th qtr

David said...
Yes. I agree because pos or neg can be a persons interpretation. Jorge said it got the talk off topic from the game, i agree. I merely pointed that there is pos coverage but am not gonna fight about that on this stupid chat. Brian is not the only one to talk about Tebow being pulled, many others did. Lets focus on football now not whether he was pos or neg.... Who cares, what are we being politically correct now? Sorry I have no tolerance for that. I was merely defending Brian but Sunrise went insane trying to prove things back, lets move on....
13:56 in the 4th qtr

Anonymous said...
Love the site, but I agree with Sunrise here.
15:00 in the 4th qtr

Dylan said...
I have a question which I'm positive has been addressed in the past. Why do these games start out at 50/50 odds? Is there any way we can see adjusted graphs that start off with Pittsburgh having an 80% chance to win? I'd personally find those to be much more insightful.
15:00 in the 4th qtr

Anonymous said...
Seriously David? You claim that there's positive coverage of Tebow on this site, Sunrise refutes your claim, then you agree with Jorge that articles shouldn't be judged by whether they are positive or negative? The whole point is that Brian's comment about pulling Tebow is not insightful and is overly negative.
15:00 in the 4th qtr

David said...
Don't know but I do know the first play of the 4th qtr will be a run...
15:00 in the 4th qtr

Chris said...
Has anyone done the WP impact of that blown call? (the lateral) On the calculator I got 0.96 vs. 0.92 so only a 0.04 difference (although a doubling of Pitt's chances to win) .... am a bit of a rookie with this stuff though.
15:00 in the 4th qtr

David said...
"Jorge said... Should articles be analyzed by whether they are positive or negative or rather by whether they are accurate, reasonable, and insightful?" THANK YOU! Enough said. WOW looks like Tebow time started earlier than 4th qtr today....
3:44 in the 3rd qtr

Jorge said...
Should articles be analyzed by whether they are positive or negative or rather by whether they are accurate, reasonable, and insightful?
4:29 in the 3rd qtr

Anon said...
sunrise089, who cares! You've essentially derailed this game chat with your incessant whining, congratulations.
4:29 in the 3rd qtr

Budman said...
While i hope not,I still see pitt winning this game. Den appears to have gotten away from the open offense that shocked the steelers in first half. It will do them in if they stick with this. Give tebow the keys again and some downfield plays!
4:29 in the 3rd qtr

sunrise089 said...
@David - I read every ANS article, I understand that there's been a lot of treatment of Tebow, some good and some bad. A quick survey though suggests the bad outweighs the good. "Introducing The Trent Dilfer Club " - Negative assessment. "I Love It... " - Negative assessment (my judgement, the post criticizes a positive assessment from a different site). "Another Argument for Tebow " - Positive assessment. "Is Tebow's Clutch Play Sustainable? " - Marginally negative. "How Is Tebow Winning? " - Negative. "Tebow by Quarter " - Marginally negative. "Tebow" - Negative.
4:29 in the 3rd qtr

wang said...
lol J.R. the refs already blew a call that was in the favor of the Steelers.. a huge blown call.. the drive led to a TD.. the Broncos could have at least got a FG if they didn't blow the play dead.. It's just like the backwards pass from 2008 Broncos vs Chargers game where it went in favor of the Broncos.
4:29 in the 3rd qtr

David said...
@Sunrise, just do a search of Tebow on this site and you will find a million articles on how he helps them win and is part of the reason....
4:52 in the 3rd qtr

J.R. said...
If the refs blow this call, I'm going to put on my Ravens Fan Conspiracy Theory Helmet.
4:52 in the 3rd qtr

David said...
Dylan- me neither, he ain't Brady but i am proud of him...
5:46 in the 3rd qtr

Dylan said...
I'm a Texans fan, and a Schaub-hater, and have loved Yates since the preseason, but I'm not ready to even compare him to Brady.
6:32 in the 3rd qtr

David said...
Dylan - the Texans have a great defense though and a great running game. They should be able to make it a close game and if Yates doesn't screw up they could beat many teams as evidence by the team rankings on this site...
7:19 in the 3rd qtr

Anon said...
Is it just me or is the "R" in 3RD backwards...
8:01 in the 3rd qtr

David said...
@ Sunrise, Brian actually wrote a BUNCH of articles in OCT and NOV talking about why Tebow was good, won so many games, etc. He praised Tebow and never thought he was a fluke, even talked about how his passing was getting better and better each game..... Not sure where his hate for Tebow comes from..... Maybe he has a twin who hates Tebow....
8:07 in the 3rd qtr

Dylan said...
There's no Texans run yet, they beat one team they were supposed to beat at home; a team they've already beaten at home.
8:07 in the 3rd qtr

Brian said...
I actually love Tebow. I don't think his luck can continue forever, but I'm rooting for him. I like the guy, a lot. Just to be perfectly clear.
8:12 in the 3rd qtr

David said...
I wish Sims could just do play by play and not be allowed to talk unless it was to say what just happened on a play. He is so annoying....
8:12 in the 3rd qtr

madsci64 said...
James said... "Remember, for it to be a forward pass, it has to go FORWARD" In a previous game, Phil Sims said Tebow "Is very decisive in his decision making." Color guys use too many words to say stupid things, but Sims may be the king.
8:12 in the 3rd qtr

sunrise089 said...
Sorry, meant to say "@Ken R" but impersonated you instead, so sorry.
8:12 in the 3rd qtr

@Ken R said...
Yep, because just like in Denver the Texans were really bad under the previous QB. Please don't be silly. I'm NOT saying "OMG Tebow is the greatest QB of all time." The 'radical and insane' claim here is that some players might have some impact on Wins not captured in WPA/EPA. Maybe I'm wrong, but there's no need to use forced analogies. How many people talked up Denver's defense during the first few games this year. And, the Texans didn't trade Andre Johnson when Yates took over either ;)
8:12 in the 3rd qtr

Willy said...
@Ken - TJ Yates also has Arian Foster. But you're right, I don't understand why Yates isn't more hyped up. Replaced an established quarterback in Matt Schaub, then takes Texans on a playoff run? Sounds like the next Tom Brady.
8:12 in the 3rd qtr

Dylan said...
@Ken R - uhhhh the Broncos don't have a great defense or anything near it, they're just playing against an offense that's got a major injury to its passing game and a less major injury to its running game.
8:12 in the 3rd qtr

Mike B said...
Ref really blew it there. Even Jim Nantz figured it out.
8:12 in the 3rd qtr

David said...
@Sunrise, you realize that Pro Football Talk and others said that they have sources who say that DEN gave half the first team reps to Quinn and that they planned on using him if Tebow struggled. Lots of people expected them to do whatever it takes to win. Brian was assuming, Tebow would play like he has the last 3 games(awful) and then they would make a change to try to win. I don't see it has having fun at his expense.
8:54 in the 3rd qtr

James said...
"Remember, for it to be a forward pass, it has to go FORWARD" Can they go back to talking about how the linebackers were fooled by the decoy fullback on the trap play?
8:54 in the 3rd qtr

Sampo said...
Yeah a huge part of the Tebow-magic is the rock-paper-scissors game the coordinators are battling.
8:54 in the 3rd qtr

David said...
I am excited to try that Bud Light predict the first play of the 4th quarter for this game, if DEN has it, I am betting a hand off to good old Willis lol, should be an easy one to predict.
9:34 in the 3rd qtr

Ken R said...
TJ Yates has the same 'magic' as Tebow... A great defense, a great offensive line and the ability to avoid disastrous mistakes.
9:34 in the 3rd qtr

Sampo said...
Yeah propably. Still I'm a bit worried here. Steelers are such a powerhouse, even when a little dinged-up.
10:25 in the 3rd qtr

sunrise089 said...
@David - I realize I may have not been clear enough since not everyone closely read the most recent post on the homepage. It read - "Join the fun on the WP Graph/Chat page. Plus, enter the 'predict when Tebow gets pulled' contest with your own guess. My prediction--Quinn takes the field coming out of halftime." - My complaint is that the second sentence isn't something the model predicts but rather having fun at Tebow's expense.
10:26 in the 3rd qtr

Willy said...
@Sunrise It also seems that Tebow's releases and passes are so much crisper and sharper... his long throws have all been much more accurate than in the past. I wonder if there's some way to model a rookie's expected development?
10:26 in the 3rd qtr

David said...
@ Sampo, because God told Tebow to snap the ball then! lol He just follows orders. haha Probably no one on DEN sideline told him to milk clock but he needs to...
11:21 in the 3rd qtr

Mike B said...
I agree Phil Simms. Definitely a no-brainer.
11:21 in the 3rd qtr

Sampo said...
9 seconds.
12:46 in the 3rd qtr

David said...
@ Sunrise, you realize Brian's model is almost identical in its ability to predict winners as Vegas and many other good predictors..... His model looks at facts and tells the future. There is no Bias.... If the probability of PIT winning is 80% then it also means 20% of the time they lose, it has nothing to do with Karma, just that the NFL has parity and anyone can win if they perform on Sunday.
12:46 in the 3rd qtr

Sampo said...
The Denver just snapped the ball with 13 seconds on the play clock. Why don't you use all the time?
12:46 in the 3rd qtr

Sunrise089 said...
@Brian, I'm just saying (somewhat tongue in cheek, but only somewhat) that "predict when Tebow will be pulled" strikes me as a bit out of character and mean spirited for ANS. I've said before that I believe to a point in Tebow's magic powers, though I think the magic was combined with some good luck during the win streak and some bad luck after. I won't be the least surprised if they win tonight but of course I still don't expect them to win the super bowl. I do think there's some karmic justice though that if the model has to get a game wrong (as I know it's supposed to, otherwise it would be under-confident) it's the Tebow game.
15:00 in the 3rd qtr

Sampo said...
How many drives should we expect the Pittsburgh to have on average? 5? The amount of drives in Denver games can't be high.


Willy said...
@David: I think that's more the Brett-Kiesel-being-injured factor....


Brian said...
Sunrise-I don't follow. Are you saying I'm gleeful in predicting a PIT win and Tebow fail? Or that I think Harrison is a borderline criminal? Full disclosure: I always root for #1 Baltimore, #2 the underdog. My wife is a NYG fan. My step-son is a WAS fan. The rest of the family smartly roots for the Ravens.


David said...
@Dylan, that fumble on the shot gun snap is the Tebow/God factor, what are the odds that happens at a critical moment.. lol
0:45 in the 2nd qtr

Sunrise089 said...
Brian, I'm not ready to call this game yet, but the level of bias seems a little bit silly here. You favored NO, HOU, and NYG too but I didn't see the same level of glee predicting, say, when Suh would make a play best classified as battery advertised on your front page. I hope you have to listen to a lot of sports talk this week. The kneejerk Tebow love they'll overcompensate with will be your pittance for being so mean ;)
0:45 in the 2nd qtr

Patrick said...
WP graphs are unnecessary for Tebow games because he always wins.
0:45 in the 2nd qtr

David said...
Why are the steelers warming up the kicker for a half time fg, they are losing bad, this is the playoffs it is time to take some risks...
0:45 in the 2nd qtr

Dylan said...
I don't see anything in the graph explanation about the Tebow factor, how is this calculated?
0:51 in the 2nd qtr

Sampo said...
I think it is on the to-do-list for the next season.
1:20 in the 2nd qtr

Trevor said...
I thought god was incorporated into the model.
2:00 in the 2nd qtr

Sampo said...
Nah. It just proves that there is a God, and (s)he/it is a Tebow fan.
2:00 in the 2nd qtr

Tally said...
Confirmation bias FTW!
2:00 in the 2nd qtr

Brian's Model said...
I agree!
2:00 in the 2nd qtr

Zach said...
IT'S OFFICIAL BRIAN'S MODEL IS WORTHLESS BRONCOS 4EVER <3
3:18 in the 2nd qtr

Brian said...
Wallace did look like he took a bad cut.
4:31 in the 2nd qtr

Brian said...
Troy got fooled on that one. How does CBS do an analysis of the play that quickly?
4:31 in the 2nd qtr

Tom said...
Clutch tackle, or did Wallace just run into him?
5:09 in the 2nd qtr

Sampo said...
Whoah! What a hit!
5:09 in the 2nd qtr

Brian said...
Clutch open field tackle by Carter.
5:53 in the 2nd qtr

Budman said...
No. Too early to be so aggressive. Fg and points were right IMO.
6:42 in the 2nd qtr

Sampo said...
@Ken: Definately. You should expect more points on average by going and it is also the high variance strategy that underdogs should favour.
6:42 in the 2nd qtr

Ken R said...
Should Denver have gone for it?
7:30 in the 2nd qtr

Budman said...
Does Ben get pulled before tebow??
7:30 in the 2nd qtr

Sampo said...
GO FOR IT!
7:30 in the 2nd qtr

Sampo said...
Good blocking by the Denver receivers.
7:38 in the 2nd qtr

Brian said...
Jump pass. I can feel it!
9:07 in the 2nd qtr

Brian said...
Roughing on Harrison? No way.
9:14 in the 2nd qtr

Brian said...
You just add 30%.
9:14 in the 2nd qtr

Sampo said...
Still, Denver is the 30th best offence measured by efficiency. You really should not take that big risks against an offence that bad.
9:14 in the 2nd qtr

Dylan said...
I don't see anything in the graph explanation about the Tebow factor, how is this calculated?
9:14 in the 2nd qtr

Brian said...
EVERYTHING is going Denver's way. The stock price of PITS is plummeting on news of Roethlisberger's ankle aggravation.
9:23 in the 2nd qtr

David said...
@Sampo, because they are playing the percentages, the data suggests that Tebow is not a great passer so they are expecting him to not be able to throw it. If they make him one dimensional they are assuming it will be all over... I agree with it. Just not working.
10:36 in the 2nd qtr

David said...
Because the Broncos are the best running team in the NFL....... Now that they are excited with 2 scores, this game could be different.... They have so much energy now..... Den is a great vertical passing team, have been all year. Only thing holding their vertical passing game has been Tebow's accuracy, if he plays like today throwing deep going forward wow, scary.... LOL, they have no red zone passing ability yet they played it like it was Tom Brady down there... I think it is getting in their heads (PIT)
10:36 in the 2nd qtr

Sampo said...
Yeah but playing without safety help is really extreme. You are the favourite, why play such high-risk/high-reward ball?
10:36 in the 2nd qtr

Brian said...
That's the one thing PIT's defense should be expecting, and they just got schooled.
10:36 in the 2nd qtr

Brian said...
PIT secondary is getting beat deep. Tebow just froze Harrison.
11:25 in the 2nd qtr

Sampo said...
Why are the Steelers so worried about the run?
11:25 in the 2nd qtr

Brian said...
Oops. Shouldn't crack on Friedman. He's my NYT-brother.
11:25 in the 2nd qtr

Sampo said...
Hah. You can't even hear the referee. 12th man indeed.
13:21 in the 2nd qtr

Brian said...
Charlie Rose is going to be a morning news host? Please, spare us from the interviews with Thomas Friedman.
13:21 in the 2nd qtr

David said...
@ Brian, can they do 10.5? :) Yeah, maybe one guy.... If they keep hitting deep passes, that run game is gonna get wide open. This could be as exciting as the Saints-Lions game last night if that happens.
13:24 in the 2nd qtr

David said...
I have to admit, I love when a team makes the WP graph drop like a stock that just got news they will go bankrupt..... I love watching it go from one extreme to the other....
13:24 in the 2nd qtr

Brian said...
Maybe they should only keep 10 in the box from now on.
13:24 in the 2nd qtr

David said...
Are you kidding me, wow, maybe he finishes game after all.....
13:24 in the 2nd qtr

Brian said...
Holy crap. Is that going to hold up under review?
13:24 in the 2nd qtr

David said...
Brian, watching Tebow throw can you blame them for having 11 in the box.
13:24 in the 2nd qtr

Sampo said...
Mother of god.
14:56 in the 2nd qtr

David said...
No they will wait til mid way in the 3rd quarter before he gets pulled, maybe late 3rd quarter if the game is close enough.... Yeah, I thing he is done for a while after that hit..... Probably broke something, literally, a bone....
15:00 in the 2nd qtr

Sampo said...
Ouch. That looked painfull.
15:00 in the 2nd qtr

Brian said...
PIT looks like it's putting 11 in the box.
0:23 in the 1st qtr

Brian said...
Ok. I'm on record. My prediction is Tebow gets pulled at halftime. What's everyone else's prediction?
0:23 in the 1st qtr

Brian said...
Ben looks healthy enough.
2:02 in the 1st qtr

Mike said...
I've got the under in this game with my last cash for my pool. This would be my swiftest exit ever, losing four games in a row.
11:14 in the 1st qtr

Sampo said...
Tebow time!
11:14 in the 1st qtr

Brian said...
Hilarious. The KO bounces off the cross bar exactly to the 20-yd line.
14:18 in the 1st qtr





2012010800