In-Game Win Probability
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tunesmith said...
Brian, look at the play with 3:26 left in the first quarter. WPA before and after. Why is an incomplete pass worth +0.08 to New England?


tunesmith said...
Broncos defense looked lousy, and made Denver's offense one-dimensional way too soon. I wonder if Dennis Allen's game plan suffered by him preparing for his freaking job interviews. Still, Denver has major secondary weakness.


Brian said...
Quick kick, yup. I had NE 45-14 . Almost nailed it.
2:00 in the 4th qtr

Marc said...
By Tom Brady, yes.
2:00 in the 4th qtr

Jonathan said...
Not paying attention...was that a punt on 3rd down??
2:56 in the 4th qtr

Ken R said...
Sorry, Tebow time?
7:39 in the 4th qtr

Ken R said...
8:00 min to go. Tenor time?
8:24 in the 4th qtr

Jonathan said...
Good luck to whomever gets to face the Pats next week. NE is definitely an 8+ point favorite. I'm not surprised at the blowout, but I am surprised they are marching the ball at will on that defense that (in all reality) actually does win games.
12:39 in the 4th qtr

Mike B said...
Is it possible Tebow is actually right-handed?
14:00 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
Tebow isn't happy with his line, but the NE defense just isn't falling for any of the misdirection.
2:25 in the 3rd qtr

Brian said...
Andrew nails it. The game was 14-7 deep into the 1st half. The difference tonight is the NE offense hitting on all cylinders...as usual.
5:30 in the 3rd qtr

SD said...
So will we see Brady Quinn come in? Or will they see if Tebow can get a 4th completion?
8:30 in the 3rd qtr

Aaron said...
Looks like you need some more sig figs on the WP value, lol
11:31 in the 3rd qtr

anonymous said...
But...but...but... he just wins games guys.... guys?
11:31 in the 3rd qtr

Andrew said...
New England isn't doing anything that lots of teams, from the Jets to the Chiefs, haven't done to the Broncos offense--namely, hold the Tebow-based offense to practically no yards and no points. What's novel here is how badly the Broncos defense is getting manhandled.
11:31 in the 3rd qtr

Giles said...
The World's Strongest Man is on ESPN if someone wants to watch a close competition. On a serious note, is the first sign of what next season will be like once all of the teams get used to this offense. Miami only got one good season out of the Wildcat too.
13:02 in the 3rd qtr

Brian said...
KJ-Very, very rarely will you see 1.00 WP. When you see .99, it really means .99 or more.


Jim Nantz said...
Hey, fellas. How the hell are Phil and I going to keep this game interesting for 30 more minutes? Any suggestions?


J.B. said...
Attacking the seam. Broncos have had trouble defending TEs for years.


Jonathan said...
The Saints are very unlucky in my view. They deserved the 2 seed, but the tiebreakers don't reward margin of victory or strength of schedule.


KJ said...
Does it go to 100% before the end of the game?
0:05 in the 2nd qtr

Marc said...
Do teams ever usually get to rest their starting QB in playoff games?
0:05 in the 2nd qtr

Brian said...
That was a brutal hit. Unfortunate for the Saints. It sure had a big impact on the game.
1:30 in the 2nd qtr

James said...
Wrong game, but I'm a little disappointed a big part of the 49ers win was Pierre Thomas's concussion. A field goal is worth 9 WP, 3 points would have drastically changed the end game scenarios, and it's very likely the Saints would have gone for it on 4th and 2. Instead a legal helmet-to-helmet hit caused a huge turnover.
1:57 in the 2nd qtr

Cliff said...
It appears the extra week to prepare for Denver is helping the Pats. They clearly are one step ahead of Denver with their game plan.
5:12 in the 2nd qtr

Brian said...
NE looks like they have the option solved.
7:37 in the 2nd qtr

jordan said...
on gronk's td he had his hands under it when the ball came loose. so it never hit the ground even if it was jolted from his hands momentarily
2:00 in the 1st qtr

Ted said...
Forward progress.
6:37 in the 1st qtr

Jonathan said...
I was checking to see if Gronk's feet would hit the ground, but neither Gronk nor the officials seemed concerned about that little detail.
6:37 in the 1st qtr

Brian said...
I don't understand the NFL reception rules. It sure looked like the ground caused Gronkowski to lose control momentarily.
6:37 in the 1st qtr





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