In-Game Win Probability
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1 said...
-1'


1 said...
1


-1' said...
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1 said...
-1'


Mark B said...
That steep drop at the end is when we Saints fans were walking triumphantly across The Bridge of San Luis Rey. My hearts wants to scapegoat Williams for the blitz call on the long Davis reception, but yesterday's randomness keeps grinding away at my fan's mind, its deterministic belief system and Magical Thinking fetishes: what if Pierre Thomas doesn't fumble...or at least doesn't get KOed? That play produced both red zone *and* green zone fumbles. Sproles comes off KO return to protect his small frame, on comes rusty Roby: 11-point swing? Please, God, can I get a witness? It's like an alternative universe for Yankee fans where Mickey Rivers never ever notices the crack in Bucky Dent's bat.


James said...
Alex Smith - 2.2 EPA and 40% success rate, but a Tebow-esque 0.98 WPA.


Jack said...
Suck it, Saints fans


Brian said...
Yup. I'm going to have to save my "Alex Smith throws 6 interceptions" article for next year. And yes, field goal/weather post will go up next week.


Ian said...
Surely you've learned by now that preparing articles is a bad idea Brian :) What an amazing finish. I did wonder watching the game though how weather affects field goals. Any chance your 'dome at cold' articles might be replaced by that?


Brian said...
Damn. Kills all my 'dome at cold' articles for next week.


Daniel said...
Hmmm a timeout. The obvious call.
0:03 in the 4th qtr

Hal said...
Brian, is there a way to account for the very-present chaos that accompanies the final 2 minutes on defense?
0:03 in the 4th qtr

Joe said...
ignore me
0:09 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
Clearly. My favorite word.
0:09 in the 4th qtr

PMJ said...
Awesomesauce
0:09 in the 4th qtr

Joe said...
go for 2? on the off chance that NO might miss an xp?
0:09 in the 4th qtr

Ross said...
This graph is clearly pointless.
0:09 in the 4th qtr

Alex said...
I have one word for this game: wow
0:09 in the 4th qtr

Michael said...
Jonathan...not if Drew Brees et al manage an 80-yard walk-off hook and ladder play :)
0:09 in the 4th qtr

Jonathan said...
Awesome time management by Alex Smith, making sure there was enough time for two drives instead of one. #outcomebias
0:14 in the 4th qtr

Michael said...
I'm pretty surprised they actually scored a TD. As Brian has documented, teams are often excessively content with the field goal try for the tie...
0:14 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
I guess not. Alex Smith is the hero!
0:14 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
Akers, it's all up to you.
0:31 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
Today, it's really good. Wow!
0:31 in the 4th qtr

Jonathan said...
Misfit--so is that!
0:40 in the 4th qtr

Misfit74 said...
Now THAT's a WP-jump
1:07 in the 4th qtr

Walker said...
Are there any numbers re: the effectiveness of the Niners' 2 minute drill?
1:37 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
And that's why you take a knee at the 1, Alex Smith.
1:37 in the 4th qtr

Walker said...
Insane. This is one of the most bonkers playoff games I've ever seen. I can feel ESPN celebrating from here.
1:37 in the 4th qtr

Jonathan said...
Jordan--they do not.
2:00 in the 4th qtr

Jordan said...
do these graphs account for timeout situation?
2:00 in the 4th qtr

Michael said...
I have absolutely no problem with intentionally not scoring when the time is right, and it appears that the time was indeed right there. However, I don't have a problem with Smith going in there as "false positives" in that situation look and are terrible.
2:11 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
Correction. The model was assuming an XP kick and not a 2-pt conv, which would have moved the needle in SF's direction.
2:11 in the 4th qtr

Walker said...
This is where interesting storylines are made.
2:11 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
Exactly. Scored way too fast. It's probably at least that, given the Saints offense.
2:11 in the 4th qtr

Walker said...
Er, WP.
2:11 in the 4th qtr

Walker said...
Interesting how the niners lost 0.02 WPA on that TD.
2:11 in the 4th qtr

Jonathan said...
He needed to fall down at the 2 there. Absolutely. Take the clock down to 40 seconds, at the most.
2:11 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
But a great play call.
2:11 in the 4th qtr

Michael said...
Should Smith have stopped at the 1?
2:18 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
Take a knee at the 1!!!
2:18 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
Burn clock, SF.
2:18 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
If SF is able to get a score to take the lead back, they need to take their time and leave nothing for NO. They should use all 4 downs on this drive, and make 3rd down decisions based on that assumption. Punting it to Brees, Sproles, etc. would not be a good idea.
4:02 in the 4th qtr

Walker said...
Looks like today's big winner is FOX. They're really getting their money's worth out of this game.
4:02 in the 4th qtr

Jonathan said...
the announcers have made the points that SF has not capitalized on turnovers...but without the TOs, the 49ers would be down by at least 3 scores. It's the only reason this game is even kinda close.
11:27 in the 4th qtr

Jonathan said...
49ers at 53% according to Betfair.
13:08 in the 4th qtr

sam haley said...
49ers will come back strong....
15:00 in the 4th qtr

Daniel said...
Hi Brian, Love the site and your model. I'm well aware I'm in more danger of revealing my ignorance than anything else. Can I meaningfully investigate how good a predictor the model is by looking at how many times a team passes .90 in the first half and goes on to win?
3:31 in the 3rd qtr

Brian said...
To further explain, say there were 100 times the model went above .55 WP in the first four weeks (which I'm sure it did), and only 33 times did those teams go on to win. That's exactly what we'd expect--a little more than half of the 48 games the team that pops a .55 WP will win. But there were only "33 wins out of 100 occasions", suggesting a poor fit. Hope I'm being clear.
10:09 in the 3rd qtr

Brian said...
You can't divide "wins per occasions". It has to be "wins per games" to make any sense. In any case, the WP model is fit very well, and has withstood wide public and academic scrutiny for several years. I can't post links here because of my spam filter, but search for 'win probability model accuracy' and you'll see plots for the model's calibration.
10:36 in the 3rd qtr

Daniel said...
Have been looking at the first four weeks of this season. There were thirty occasions when a team had 900 mWP in the first half. They went on to win only twenty one times. That's (.700)
12:14 in the 3rd qtr

Alex said...
San Fran has only 8 runs in 32 plays?? Why is San Fran afraid to run?


Alex said...
I'm guessing it will even out as you add them all up, but not quite towards .75, as the formula isn't perfect. I think it will be pretty close, like tend towards .7


Tom said...
According to Betfair there is a 56% chance of a Saints win as things stand.


Tom said...
Over hundreds of games it will end up at about 0.75


Daniel said...
I've just been off counting how often the first team to reach 750 millWinProbs goes on to win. Week one was a reassuring 12 and 4 (.750), week two was 10 and 6 (.625), week three was 6 and 10 (.375). Will this even out do you reckon? I'm doubting it. Or perhaps I should be counting every time a team crosses the 75% or 25% line?
0:17 in the 2nd qtr

Alex said...
Anyone else think San Fran passed too often in the first half. I think they went with a more passing offense to try to take advantage of the saint's soft D. But I think using their power run and softening up the D even more to set up the pass might be more effective.
1:24 in the 2nd qtr

Walker said...
That turnover carried the least value for the 49ers of any today. It was almost the same as a punt.
1:49 in the 2nd qtr

Jay said...
George t - Yes. The graph doesn't take into account team strength, just historical data.
2:14 in the 2nd qtr

Alex said...
@Daniel: That is how the win probability things are generated is such that the match prior data in win probability. IF they don't work in the long run, the formula gets changed for the next year (or possibly a hard to fix annomoly with how the data is calculated) @George: this site doesn't adjust for team strength
2:22 in the 2nd qtr

george t said...
do these graphs always start at 50%
2:26 in the 2nd qtr

Jonathan said...
Every game gets to 0.99/0.0a at some point, so at least a couple of them have to result in massive comebacks.
2:26 in the 2nd qtr

Daniel said...
Week 14. Denver beat Chicago 13 to 10. with 14 seconds left on 3rd and 10 Tebow runs for no gain leaving the Bears with 990 milliWinProbs.
2:29 in the 2nd qtr

Jay said...
Jeremy - the Bears-Denver game this season, I'm fairly certain Denver came back from a .01 win chance, took it to OT, and won it.
2:29 in the 2nd qtr

Tom said...
Jeremy I can confirm that teams have returned from 0.01 to win plenty of times.
2:46 in the 2nd qtr

Walker said...
The Saints have risen from the dead. Still a lot of football left, but Brees and Co have clawed their way back up to a reasonable chance of victory.
4:09 in the 2nd qtr

Jeremy said...
@Alex and Jay, Has anyone ever one won with a .01 win prob?
4:09 in the 2nd qtr

Misfit74 said...
What's this? Huge early-game turnover number aren't sustainable?
4:09 in the 2nd qtr

Daniel said...
Is it really 20% if we went back and counted them? Doesn't it matter what happens after that?
4:09 in the 2nd qtr

Alex said...
@Jeremy: 20% of them :-P I wouldn't count saints as the favourite until they have a lead, san francisco is the 2nd best team in the NFL, IMHO, and can do quite a bit on their own.
4:09 in the 2nd qtr

Jay said...
Jeremy - They were at .06 at one point, but with it being so early in the game, I don't think you can ever count the Saints out.
4:16 in the 2nd qtr

Jeremy said...
How many teams have won with a .20 win prob? I mean Indy in 2009, and who else. If San Fran can get .03 more will they secure it?
5:02 in the 2nd qtr

Alex said...
i think punting was the right decision. too much to lose if it fails, and they have such a good punter.
6:24 in the 2nd qtr

Jeremy said...
Walker, I couldn't agree more. their high octane offense sure can comeback. I mean 466 yards...
6:38 in the 2nd qtr

Daniel said...
Their offence is pretty good at playing with the lead too.
7:13 in the 2nd qtr

Walker said...
If the Saints can keep from turning it over, they have a good chance of coming back. Their offense is good for playing from behind.
7:13 in the 2nd qtr

Daniel said...
So should the Niners go for it on 4th and 3 or do they punt?
7:47 in the 2nd qtr

Jonathan said...
SF actually gained 0.01 WP after than incomplete pass to force a FG attempt. huh...........
12:33 in the 2nd qtr

Alan said...
Down, knee hit the ground
12:33 in the 2nd qtr

Jonathan said...
He wuz down.
12:33 in the 2nd qtr

Alex said...
San Fran is great at running down the clock, not a team you want to give up a large lead to
13:33 in the 2nd qtr

RedBluff9erFan said...
Does this stat page refresh? I was following then lost it back to opening drive.
14:12 in the 2nd qtr

Jonathan said...
Drew Brees must be going crazy right now. His teammates are letting him down bigtime with fumbles on offense and a blown coverage on defense.
15:00 in the 2nd qtr

Alan said...
3 turnovers in the first quarter. there is a lot of time left so the saints can come back, but they dug themselves a big hole
15:00 in the 2nd qtr

Alan said...
capitalizing on turnovers is key, on the fumble they didn't but it stopped a score. they capitalized on the INT.
0:41 in the 1st qtr

Patrick said...
bwa?
0:41 in the 1st qtr

James said...
SF will be kicking themselves for the rest of the day, and possibly year, if they don't get a touchdown here.
0:44 in the 1st qtr

Jonathan said...
Looks like the Saints will be playing from behind today.
0:56 in the 1st qtr

James said...
Say it ain't so Drew!
1:15 in the 1st qtr

Jay said...
Ahhh. I wish I wasn't stuck at work. I so want to be watching this game. I'll be stuck at work for the Packers-Giants tomorrow too, barring some miracle :( Also, Punting with Lee is probably worth more than most punters, considering how effective he was this year. 47 net yards on that punt, I believe, and that's nothing to scoff at.
2:54 in the 1st qtr

Alan said...
big sack
3:23 in the 1st qtr

James said...
@Misfit - My guess is that since the Saints are blitzing everyone, the secondary is in man defense and there are no safeties playing zone to read his eyes.
3:48 in the 1st qtr

Jonathan said...
I'll give them a pass on punting after the 1st turnover, considering it happened on their own 3 yard line.
3:48 in the 1st qtr

Misfit74 said...
How does Alex Smith get away with severely telegraphing every pass?
4:20 in the 1st qtr

JB Knox said...
I was wondering if the widget I coded to my site should be updating live as your is? Mine is still showing SF's last game and I also don't have the down and distance as you have here?
4:20 in the 1st qtr

Alan said...
Its only a matter of time before the saints start putting up points, 49ners have to capitalize on turnovers
4:20 in the 1st qtr

Misfit74 said...
How does Alex Smith get away with severely telegraphing every pass?
4:20 in the 1st qtr

Jonathan said...
Two consecutive drives without points? I thought the Saints were playing.
5:27 in the 1st qtr

Alan said...
I think that was P. thomas
9:03 in the 1st qtr

James said...
Is Sproles okay? He dropped like a rock.
9:03 in the 1st qtr





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