In-Game Win Probability
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Jayhawk said...
Jay that sound like a christmas wish to me


Jay said...
Well darn. I was hoping for a Texans-49ers Christmas. I mean Superbowl.


Brian said...
Great season, Texans. Congratulations. Great defense, and your offense played well against some very good defenses the last couple weeks.


K said...
gotta pull this out texans!
0:24 in the 4th qtr

Jared said...
Let's go Texans!
0:45 in the 4th qtr

Ian said...
Could be because they keep running the predictable run up the middle. Seriously coaches find a better way to make a yard
0:45 in the 4th qtr

Jared said...
Let's go Texans!
0:45 in the 4th qtr

Michael said...
I know it would break Brian's heart, but it would be cool to see the Texans come back in this one after they were declared dead...
0:53 in the 4th qtr

KenR said...
Jacoby can make up for his fumble!
0:53 in the 4th qtr

Matt said...
Why can't the Ravens get one yard when it matters? Harbaugh needs to fix this if they're still playing next weekend.
1:38 in the 4th qtr

Matt said...
Almost.
1:38 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
This is big.
1:38 in the 4th qtr

Zach said...
13 1/3 yard line--what precision!
1:38 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
That's it.
1:44 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
1 yd for the win.
1:44 in the 4th qtr

KenR said...
Raven defense... Tough duty for a rookie QB.
1:44 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
Momentum, etc?
2:00 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
Is that a TB?
2:00 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
Zach-b/c 17 sec elapsed without a play.
2:00 in the 4th qtr

KenR said...
Ravens did Texans a big favor with those calls. What are 2 timeouts worth in the last 2 min of a tight game?
2:00 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
Was just thinking the same thing. Had HOU returned the KO for a TD, the WP wouldn't have moved very much. BAL would get the last possession with OT to fall back on.
2:00 in the 4th qtr

Zach said...
Why did the WP go down to 2% just then?
2:44 in the 4th qtr

Ogro said...
Such terrible playcalling by the Ravens on 2nd and 3rd down there. High-risk, low-reward throws into the middle...
2:52 in the 4th qtr

Michael said...
There's also the fact that they might have just left themselves time for a game-winning FG should the Texans score a TD here :)
2:52 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
They have 2 TOs+2 min warning. Passing was the right call.
2:56 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
Time is not a factor. Scoring is a factor. There will be plenty of time for HOU to drive for a score either way.
3:01 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
I should. It's such a pain though. ESPN's QBR kinda does the same thing. AY is a little more transparent and comprehensible.
3:04 in the 4th qtr

Anon said...
Hey Brian, are you going to be making an Air yards post for 2011 season? I'm always interested in seeing those numbers.
3:50 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
True. But a lot of rookies have done much worse.
5:58 in the 4th qtr

Alan said...
I apologize, Brian
5:58 in the 4th qtr

Matt said...
Nice work on gaining one yard, Ravens.
5:58 in the 4th qtr

Alan said...
@ brain it think it is not a delay of game because it was a change of possession
6:45 in the 4th qtr

Anon said...
I'm starting to feel like Yates isn't that great of a QB and that his AYPA stats were somewhat padded by Arian Foster running his short dumpoffs for great gains
7:21 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
Shouldn't Webb get a penalty for running to the EZ and throwing the ball into the stands? Delay of game at least.
8:11 in the 4th qtr

Alan said...
Probowl snub L. Webb makes a big play again
8:11 in the 4th qtr

KenR said...
Worst part of that fumble is that it was an un forced error.
8:57 in the 4th qtr

Seriosity said...
Gotta love Ray Lewis tackles
8:57 in the 4th qtr

anon said...
so is it time yet for the DCs and OCs to completely change their defensive schemes?
8:57 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
ST is making a huge difference in this game. HOU is really outplaying BAL. That fumbled punt is the difference in the game.
9:34 in the 4th qtr

KenR said...
Very clean. Nice to see them have a little contact in the secondary. Let em play!
10:22 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
At least he held on to it.
10:22 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
AHHH
10:29 in the 4th qtr

Alan said...
It has been a very clean game not many penalties,
11:48 in the 4th qtr

Matt said...
Nice work, South Dakota. Way too sweep the 14/15 age bracket.
15:00 in the 4th qtr

KenR said...
EVerybodys happy. Texans held with no scoring by Ravens. Ravens come back with good field position.
15:00 in the 4th qtr

Alan said...
Field position is important
0:25 in the 3rd qtr

Nick said...
And there's why going for it on 4th-and-goal isn't a bad decision even if you don't end up scoring.
1:08 in the 3rd qtr

Matt said...
Great stand by the BAL defense. Turn it around, give the offense half a field to work with.
1:08 in the 3rd qtr

Brian said...
Sorry, not off-hand.
1:47 in the 3rd qtr

Michael said...
Does anyone (*cough* Brian *cough*) know how often safeties occur on drives starting at the 1?
1:53 in the 3rd qtr

Ian said...
Did the NFL bring in a rule that teams must run up the middle when they go for it on 4th and 1? As if you don't have something special worked up for 4th and goal from the 1 in the playoffs.
1:53 in the 3rd qtr

Brian said...
The thing is "up by 7" at this point isn't much better than "up by 4" in terms of WP.
1:53 in the 3rd qtr

KenR said...
Right call Harbaugh. No points, but Texans have 99.5 yds to go.
1:53 in the 3rd qtr

Matt said...
Mike Smith is watching the next couple of plays closely.
1:53 in the 3rd qtr

Brian said...
But gotta give HOU defense credit. Great stand.
1:53 in the 3rd qtr

Brian said...
That's ok. HOU is on their goal line.
1:59 in the 3rd qtr

Brian said...
That's ok. HOU is on their goal line.
1:59 in the 3rd qtr

Matt said...
Numbers say JUMP.
1:59 in the 3rd qtr

KenR said...
Ahhhhhh. Brian, will you please send your business card to Kubiak?
1:59 in the 3rd qtr

Brian said...
Don't take a timeout to think about it. Have a gameplan ahead of time, Harbaugh. You need those TOs for the endgame.
2:45 in the 3rd qtr

Brian said...
Numbers say go.
2:45 in the 3rd qtr

Brian said...
Ken, not outdoors in January.
4:22 in the 3rd qtr

Alan said...
what a catch by evans
5:10 in the 3rd qtr

Brian said...
Wow! What do I know?
5:10 in the 3rd qtr

KenR said...
Wasted drive by texans. But 4th and 6 vs 52 yd attempt... FG probably the way to go.
5:10 in the 3rd qtr

Brian said...
4 down territory. Run it.
5:14 in the 3rd qtr

Brian said...
Thanks./Finally, Flacco steps up for a throw./I think HOU will be content to keep the game within a score and hope for a squeaker at the end.
5:54 in the 3rd qtr

Anon said...
Hey Brian, as a math grad student and a football fan, just want to say great site. One of the few bastions of rationality in the world of online football analysis.
5:54 in the 3rd qtr

Brian said...
Yup. No question. HOU defense is winning at the line.
6:04 in the 3rd qtr

Brian said...
Told ya'.
6:04 in the 3rd qtr

Brian said...
Too long.
6:43 in the 3rd qtr

Alan said...
Ravens O-line not doing its job. They are letting pass rushers go through them, and they are not opening holes for Rice
10:28 in the 3rd qtr

Brian said...
Gotta get Rice the ball through the air.
11:45 in the 3rd qtr

Brian said...
One too many naked bootlegs.
11:59 in the 3rd qtr

Brian said...
Probably not. GWP is geared to be very future-looking. Stats like EPA and WPA are much better suited to comparisons of past performance. Those are available for teams and players back through 2000.
13:03 in the 3rd qtr

Anon said...
Brian - Somewhat off topic. I know you've done historic offensive/defensive efficiency stats but are you planning on ever doing historic GWP. It would be cool to be able to compare teams on an absolute basis and compare teams like the 04 colts and 07 patriots. Also to be able to see if there were really good teams that got screwed (like the Chargers of last year).


Brian said...
I used to go regularly. Not so much anymore with my kids' sports and other activities. I've been to two games this year.
0:28 in the 2nd qtr

Sunrise089 said...
Brian, do you never attend NFL games?
1:28 in the 2nd qtr

Mel said...
Brian - Thanks. Great work with this site by the way
2:00 in the 2nd qtr

Nick said...
Sorry, I meant the Texans
2:00 in the 2nd qtr

Brian said...
neutral
4:11 in the 2nd qtr

Nick said...
Should the Ravens have gone for two there? Relatedly, have you guys done any research on when it is/isn't advisable to go for two?
4:48 in the 2nd qtr

Neil said...
Do the Live WP Graphs reflect home field advantage or is it treated as a neutral field?
4:48 in the 2nd qtr

Brian said...
+1
4:48 in the 2nd qtr

KenR said...
WOW! When was the last time the Raven D got pushed around like that?
4:48 in the 2nd qtr

Jonathan said...
Brian's all like, "hey guys free advice, if the Ravens stop you here you should kick the field goal. Oh and try a fade route on 3rd down."
4:52 in the 2nd qtr

KenR said...
If Foster keep this up, it is not a good sign for the Ravens
7:10 in the 2nd qtr

Brian said...
Mel-There's a post titled 'First Down Probability' you can find either in the Top Articles list or by using the search box.
7:10 in the 2nd qtr

Jonathan said...
That was me post, by the way, trying to address my post to KenR. Epic phailz.
7:10 in the 2nd qtr

KenR said...
Good point about the defense. 19-18 Ravens, final score.
7:46 in the 2nd qtr

Brian said...
Where's the pass rush?
9:08 in the 2nd qtr

Mel said...
New to this site so have a question.... Where can I find historical data on down conversions by yds? Thx in advance, Mel
9:08 in the 2nd qtr

Brian said...
Statistically, that's not worth one of your 2 challenges, even if it's very likely to be successful. It's a 1st down either way (I believe). So we're only talking about a little chunk of field position.
10:10 in the 2nd qtr

Alan said...
Bad Challenge
10:10 in the 2nd qtr

Alan said...

10:10 in the 2nd qtr

Brian said...
Flacco will be right there to bail them out. HOU needs to keep feeding Foster.
10:37 in the 2nd qtr

KenR said...
18-17 ? Texans D is pretty good, but I have a feeling TJ and Jacoby aren't done putting them into holes.
11:37 in the 2nd qtr

Brian said...
Stop messing with my head.
11:37 in the 2nd qtr

Jonathan said...
Texans 18, Ravens 17.
11:42 in the 2nd qtr

KenR said...
Texans aren't gonna win by collecting field goals.
11:46 in the 2nd qtr

Brian said...
Wade Phillips should get coach of the year. Does it have to go to a head coach? Look at the HOU defense's numbers between 2010 and 2011. From one of the very worst in the league to one of the very best.
1:08 in the 1st qtr

Alan said...
who got snubbed
3:13 in the 1st qtr

Alan said...
A guy how got snubbed for the probowl. L. webb
3:13 in the 1st qtr

Brian said...
And now you see why.
3:21 in the 1st qtr

KenR said...
Re: Jacoby Jones, still, this punt return fumble is consistent with his play as a WR. Some big play capability, but bonehead plays abound.
3:21 in the 1st qtr

Brian said...
That's what they do with Yates. Lots of roll outs, with only a read or 2. A lot of screens.
4:29 in the 1st qtr

Anon said...
Wow the Texans play calling is way too conservative
4:29 in the 1st qtr

Brian said...
Looks like Suggs is wearing hockey goalie shin pads or something. Maybe worried about HOU's cut blocking.
4:41 in the 1st qtr

Alan said...
Ravens are playing some good defense
4:41 in the 1st qtr

Brian said...
That's a LONG field goal when the temp is in the 30s.
6:02 in the 1st qtr

Brian said...
Go. For. It. Cam.
6:56 in the 1st qtr

Brian said...
I don't track ST WP automatically. I can generate it with some work though.
8:13 in the 1st qtr

KenR said...
Just wondering what Jacoby Jones WPA is in 2011.
8:49 in the 1st qtr

Jonathan said...
That's why you shouldn't be afraid to open up your playbook on 4th & short. That guy was completely uncovered.
9:51 in the 1st qtr





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