In-Game Win Probability


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Jonathan said...
It's hard to rack up a lot of LPA when you go straight to 0.01 WP in less than a half.


Mark B said...
The earth might stop spinning if we get a Ravens-Giants rematch after LSU-Bama I & II. But go Giants and go Ravens!


sunrise089 said...
Rogers - .02WPA versus a quality defense at home. Tebow - .01WPA versus a bad defense but on the road. Just saying... ;)


GarethF said...
Har-bowl.


rvictorg said...
+1 for Ravens-Giants rematch!


Brian said...
Boo. Ravens-Giants rematch! Yay!


Bob said...
Giants-Patriots rematch, yay!


Mark B said...
Hmm, apparently how you play w/o the ball still counts in the playoffs. Godspeed G Williams and GB say hello to the '98 Vikes on the ash heap of history.


Giles said...
Normalcy is resumed. An interception by NY drops their win prob back to 0.99 :)
1:04 in the 4th qtr

Jonathan said...
This based on nothing but my own gut feeling. Feel free to shoot me down here.
1:56 in the 4th qtr

Jonathan said...
The refs have been horrible but not biased. If they wanted the Packers to win the Packers would win. The Giants would have a win probability of <1%. It's probably <1% against the spread even.
2:23 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
No tweaking.
2:23 in the 4th qtr

Bill Leavy said...
Damn you Giants! Ok seriously I'm not a fan of either team but those 2 calls were really pretty straightforward and instead of a turnover and 4th down punt GB got 14 pts. Leavy seems to have problems in the playoffs. I agree this game wasn't even close.
2:36 in the 4th qtr

Jonathan said...
That was a straight-up beatdown. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Giants favored in SF next week, after their fluke-looking victory, and recency bias and all of that.
2:36 in the 4th qtr

Giles said...
Woah did you tweak the site Brian or did NY do what NE couldn't yesterday and get a 1.00 Win Prob?
2:36 in the 4th qtr

Bob said...
Score should be a lot more lopsided, just by the bad calls.
2:36 in the 4th qtr

James said...
Yes, Eli Manning has been a game manager with an AYPA of over 10.
3:30 in the 4th qtr

Jonathan said...
Bill Leavy was the official in Super Bowl XL. Steelers Seahawks. There have been several bad calls in favor of the Giants though.
4:46 in the 4th qtr

rvictorg said...
lol @Bill Leavy....what a terrible call, the NFL needs to do a better job of masking it's blatantly biased officiating
4:46 in the 4th qtr

Jonathan said...
It looked like a blow to the head looking at the way Rodgers's head snapped. But I missed the other (better) camera angle.
4:46 in the 4th qtr

Bill Leavy said...
Yes! 2 touchdowns for me! Where are my stats?!
4:46 in the 4th qtr

GarethF said...
Give one Packer his due - Donald Driver showed up today.
4:52 in the 4th qtr

Bill Leavy said...
Or me
5:23 in the 4th qtr

Jonathan said...
Tom "Prevent Defense" Coughlin seems to be Green Bay's only hope.
5:48 in the 4th qtr

Bob said...
And the game is over.
6:53 in the 4th qtr

GarethF said...
This is the Giants pulling away with little second-half drama.
6:53 in the 4th qtr

Giles said...
oops. good job by the officials for not blowing the whistle on that one.
7:40 in the 4th qtr

Jonathan said...
Packers, here.
7:48 in the 4th qtr

Jordan said...
whos everyone cheering for?
9:09 in the 4th qtr

Jonathan said...
Packers need to stop the Giants right here. Even a 10 point gap would be tough this late.
11:10 in the 4th qtr

rvictorg said...
yeah I agree it definitely looked like he slowed down, but still not a great pass
11:10 in the 4th qtr

GarethF said...
The '49ers must be licking their lips.
11:38 in the 4th qtr

James said...
Make that "hole", not "whole".
12:24 in the 4th qtr

James said...
As just shown on tv Finley slowed down on his route. Hard to blame him since he was sitting in the whole, but Rodgers obviously threw it expecting him to continue full speed.
12:54 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
Add that 4th down to the mountain of second guessing McCarthy will get tomorrow.
12:54 in the 4th qtr

rvictorg said...
@James it wasn't exactly the best throw, I think the blame falls on Rogers for that "dropped" ball
12:54 in the 4th qtr

Mel said...
Funny thing is Finley wants to get paid like a top TE.
12:54 in the 4th qtr

Jonathan said...
All of the outcome bias monkeys in the media are gonna have a field day if the Packers lose.
12:54 in the 4th qtr

James said...
Finley is awful. He must drop half the passes thrown to him.
13:04 in the 4th qtr

Mel said...
Point taken....
15:00 in the 4th qtr

Sunrise089 said...
@mel - you have great confidence in the rationality of the sports media ;)
1:41 in the 3rd qtr

Mel said...
why would he? giants didn't score on that possession....
3:50 in the 3rd qtr

Ted said...
He'll get the egg mcmuffin of criticism.
3:50 in the 3rd qtr

Brian said...
McCarthy is gonna get a load of $#!+ for that onside kick if GB loses by 1 score.
3:50 in the 3rd qtr

Brian said...
Maybe not horrible, but average. Well below what they usually do.
3:50 in the 3rd qtr

Jonathan said...
That drop cost the Packers 4 points. Maybe 7. Horrible performance by the Packer WR core so far.
3:55 in the 3rd qtr

Mel said...
I guess so, or I would guess Giants are playing really well and making GB looking "unsound"
10:28 in the 3rd qtr

Bob said...
Mel, I guess so?
11:22 in the 3rd qtr

James said...
Well that certainly doesn't help.
11:22 in the 3rd qtr

Mel said...
did they just become "fundamentally unsound" these past 2 weeks?
12:43 in the 3rd qtr

GarethF said...
I can see the Giants pulling away here. I think they'll win it with a surprising lack of second-half drama. Green Bay fundamentally unsound.
15:00 in the 3rd qtr

GarethF said...
I can see the Giants pulling away here. I think they'll win it with a surprising lack of second-half drama. Green Bay fundamentally unsound.
15:00 in the 3rd qtr

Mel said...
May the law of averages catch up with the giants in 2nd half


Jonathan said...
It really depends on the kicker. My guess is that the FG kick was close to a 0% probability in this weather.


Brian said...
Maybe. Keep in mind they got a few gifts in that 1st half. Kuhn fumble. Hail Mary TD. They didn't get all the breaks, but they got some big ones.


Bob said...
I can see this Giants team going all the way.


Zach said...
although I still think the FG was the better call


Jonathan said...
B-B-But this defense gets turnovers. The Packers will win games by capitalizing on opponent turnovers.


Mark B said...
DBs must have been brain locked on Giants FG.


Brian said...
Imagine the mountain of outcome-bias crap Coughlan would have gotten if that didn't work.


James said...
What were the corners thinking on that play? "I'm manned up on the wide receiver who's sprinting past me to the end zone, but I better slow down and look at Eli to see what he's doing. After all, it's not like there's seconds left and they must get the ball to the endzone this play"
0:00 in the 2nd qtr

Bob said...
Bradshaw set this up.
0:00 in the 2nd qtr

Brian Burke said...
Bold.
0:00 in the 2nd qtr

Giles said...
WOW! Just wow! I cannot believe they went for it let alone got it.
0:00 in the 2nd qtr

Brian Burke said...
Holy...
0:15 in the 2nd qtr

James said...
Wow.
0:15 in the 2nd qtr

GarethF said...
The nadir of Green Bay's secondary.
0:15 in the 2nd qtr

Jonathan said...
ndvaskjbkjagfasnuofgblasfvulbkjsddf
0:15 in the 2nd qtr

Bob said...
wow
0:15 in the 2nd qtr

Matt said...
Amazing!
0:15 in the 2nd qtr

Brian Burke said...
I'm a robot!
0:19 in the 2nd qtr

Giles said...
The discount double check?
0:41 in the 2nd qtr

Jonathan said...
GB opponents have dome the Belt celebration more than Aaron Rodgers this year.
1:00 in the 2nd qtr

Bob said...
What are the chances a 4th and 5 would've been successful?
1:24 in the 2nd qtr

James said...
Neither would I, which is why Jacobs' run was very costly. I still think Coughlin is overly conservative and would have gone for the FG even if it was 4th and 1.
1:51 in the 2nd qtr

Brian Burke said...
Even I wouldn't with more than 6 to go.
2:00 in the 2nd qtr

Bob said...
If third down fails, I will pray to Zeus that the Giants go for it.
2:00 in the 2nd qtr

ted said...
I guess thats why
4:11 in the 2nd qtr

Bob said...
And that run is disastrous. "no doubt about that one"
4:11 in the 2nd qtr

Justin said...
The graph is making me dizzy.
4:11 in the 2nd qtr

Michael said...
pack haven't run hardly at all.
4:11 in the 2nd qtr

Brian Burke said...
All of Rodgers' "sacks" are for positive yds.
4:54 in the 2nd qtr

Brian Burke said...
Could wrong, but it looked like Nicks made,no play on that ball.
5:27 in the 2nd qtr

Seriosity said...
He would've been sacked and they would've punted then. In terms of field position, not much of a difference.
5:27 in the 2nd qtr

James said...
But I am not confident Coughlin would go for it there. And the pick is better than missing a field goal.
5:27 in the 2nd qtr

Ted said...
Costly.
5:27 in the 2nd qtr

Matt said...
Totally unnecessary forced throw. They had another down to get that 5.
5:42 in the 2nd qtr

Brian Burke said...
Too quick to dump that off.
6:29 in the 2nd qtr

Bob said...
Sloppy, sloppy.
9:17 in the 2nd qtr

Brian Burke said...
Giants are using a heavy platoon rotation ondef.
9:25 in the 2nd qtr

Matt said...
Feeling worse than the 42% as a Giants fan right now.
9:25 in the 2nd qtr

Brian Burke said...
They would be if Rodgers weren't so slippery.
11:01 in the 2nd qtr

Matt said...
Giants front four really not a factor so far.
12:32 in the 2nd qtr

Justin said...
Thanks, Jay. That's definitely more clear than a completed pass. :)
12:32 in the 2nd qtr

Brian Burke said...
Yds, not yes.
12:32 in the 2nd qtr

Brian Burke said...
Absolutely. 2 yes to go. Definitely.
12:32 in the 2nd qtr

Marc said...
Where does the live play by play data come from?
12:32 in the 2nd qtr

Brian Burke said...
Sadly, no not in the live graphs. But it will get factored in for the final graph. It definitely matters.
12:41 in the 2nd qtr

Bob said...
Darn! First, out of bounds kickoff. Now, blocked FG. Special teams c'mon!
12:41 in the 2nd qtr

Matt said...
Should they have gone for it there? Easy to say yes now, but I think possibly regardless.
12:41 in the 2nd qtr

Bo said...
Does the Win % factor in who receives the ball in the second half? if not have you ever considered that?
14:11 in the 2nd qtr

Brian Burke said...
That's OK. This isn't a fld pos game. Its a possession / red zone success game.
14:11 in the 2nd qtr

GarethF said...
Is that McCarthy's way of telling his defense to step up?
14:11 in the 2nd qtr

Zach said...
I wish that had worked
14:54 in the 2nd qtr

Brian Burke said...
Thank you, Mike P.
14:54 in the 2nd qtr

Brian Burke said...
Great play action. Pwned the LB.
14:54 in the 2nd qtr

GarethF said...
Full back somersaults \o/
14:54 in the 2nd qtr

Bob said...
By the way New York is passing today, that was probably a huge point swing.
15:00 in the 2nd qtr

Anon said...
The outside of his calf touched the ground at the same time the ball came out
15:00 in the 2nd qtr

Brian Burke said...
You can borrow my tin foil hat. I've got a spare. But is was a bad call.
15:00 in the 2nd qtr

Jay said...
Justin - I don't know, the rulebook seems pretty clear: . An official shall declare the ball dead and the down ended: (a) when a runner is contacted by a defensive player and touches the ground with any part of his body other than his hands or feet.
15:00 in the 2nd qtr

Bob said...
That last replay angle they showed, his butt was NOT on the ground.
1:21 in the 1st qtr

Jay said...
Oh my. That reeks of conspiracy. Initially called a fumble, then overturned for no apparent reason on the field, then the Giants lose a challenge on it? That's nuts.
1:29 in the 1st qtr

Justin said...
I'm guessing the butt on the turf must count. Too much ambiguity in the rules on what means down, what means a catch, etc...
1:45 in the 1st qtr

Bob said...
I can't see how in the world he was down.
1:45 in the 1st qtr

Seriosity said...
What? I don't think it could have been any clearer that it was a fumble.
1:45 in the 1st qtr

Brian Burke said...
Bad call
1:45 in the 1st qtr

GarethF said...
Was his ankle down or something?
1:45 in the 1st qtr

Brian Burke said...
I guess I meant it would stand as a fumble
1:45 in the 1st qtr

GarethF said...
Packers look rusty, as feared. 3 or 4 fundamental errors already.
1:45 in the 1st qtr

Brian Burke said...
That'll stand.
2:14 in the 1st qtr

Brian Burke said...
League wide
2:14 in the 1st qtr

Michael said...
does the graph take team specific data into account or just league-wide data? 71% for NY seems really high
3:30 in the 1st qtr

Bob said...
That's just unacceptable by the Giants.
3:47 in the 1st qtr

Jonathan said...
Still not expecting a FG war.
5:29 in the 1st qtr

Brian said...
Was not expecting a FG war.
5:33 in the 1st qtr

James said...
Wow, haven't seen Rodgers miss that throw all season.
5:33 in the 1st qtr

Seriosity said...
Who still disagrees with that?
8:33 in the 1st qtr

Noooo said...
Great drive, only a field goal. Giants can't win this game doing that against the Packers...
8:33 in the 1st qtr

James said...
Maybe this will be the game everyone finally agrees the Packers defense can't stop anyone. Eli's already at 8 yards per pass.
8:44 in the 1st qtr





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