In-Game Win Probability
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ben said...
I stand corrected on that comment on the missing play. Its tucked in there.


ben said...
The play by play is incorrect in showing that the Boldin fumble advanced the ball to the 10 on the game's 4th to last play. Ball was placed on the 14 i believe. Also seems to be that one of the last two incompletions is missing prior to the fg.


Matt W. said...
As a Browns fan, I am *so* heartbroken for you Brian. Having seen this happen to my teams over and over again throughout the years, I will be *so* sympathetic to your pain. I assure you that goofy grin on my face is a nervous twitch.


Chuck Winkler said...
With the ball he had two feet down for a very, very brief moment.. but they were down.


Matt said...
@Chuck I agree that it was closer than they were making it seem. He only needs to have it for a second.


Chuck Winkler said...
I wonder why they didn't challenge the 2nd down Touchdown? Looked 50/50 to me... at least give it a look??


tunesmith said...
wow. I didn't watch and just saw the play-by-play. That's awful. Especially when it looks like they had a good shot at a touchdown to win it. That really sucks.


Jason said...
Moore also missed numerous tackles including the touch down on 3rd and 6


Jonathan said...
Oh and a horrible decision by Baltimore to pass on 3rd down...they should have just "taken the points." ;)


Jason said...
I will take credit for it, because that was prime situation to blow it in the playoffs...


Jonathan said...
Moore saved the season for the Patriots. Absolutely saved the season.


Ian S said...
That FG seemed very rushed to me. Cundiff only got out with 10 secs on the clock. Does he normally come out at the last minute?


Sunrise089 said...
@zach - they will claim some BS about "pressure" and "forcing a clutch situation" and claim it would have been avoided with the earlier kick.


mike said...
the laces were in. they were in!


Zach said...
In retrospect I don't see how the media can criticize not kicking the 50 yd FG on 4th and 6 if he can't even make a 30 yarder


Sunrise089 said...
By the way, queue the mainstream "go for it on 4th and six" criticism in 3..2..1..
0:11 in the 4th qtr

Trent Dilfer said...
Flacco isn't a champion
0:11 in the 4th qtr

Matt said...
Condolences Brian. They deserved a chance in OT.
0:11 in the 4th qtr

Pickle said...
Flacco did everything he could possibly do.
0:11 in the 4th qtr

Sunrise089 said...
It's ok Flacco/Brian, not even Tebow could get it done @NE ;)
0:11 in the 4th qtr

doktarr said...
wow. From a near-catch in the endzone to a missed FG in two plays.
0:11 in the 4th qtr

James said...
Colts fans are going to be pissed the Patriots will be playing in Indy.
0:11 in the 4th qtr

Flash said...
there are no words
0:11 in the 4th qtr

Zach said...
Brontzman'd
0:11 in the 4th qtr

Pickle said...
He was inside the target line!
0:11 in the 4th qtr

Steven said...
Jason called it!
0:11 in the 4th qtr

Sunrise089 said...
But I thought short field goals were automatic! ;)
0:22 in the 4th qtr

Walker said...
What a stupid way to end a game.
0:22 in the 4th qtr

Jay said...
!
0:22 in the 4th qtr

Jon said...
oh my god
0:22 in the 4th qtr

Jason said...
Missed field goal???
0:22 in the 4th qtr

Chris said...
Well that was heartbreaking.
0:27 in the 4th qtr

Flash said...
go for it?!
0:27 in the 4th qtr

Jon said...
and it'll be OT?
0:27 in the 4th qtr

Walker said...
NFL playoffs have been ludicrous this season. This is nearly as heart-stopping as NO-SF.
0:27 in the 4th qtr

Jon said...
oh my god?
0:51 in the 4th qtr

Jay said...
Whoa. Pats D broke something there
0:58 in the 4th qtr

James said...
Does Balt go super conservative and play for OT?
0:58 in the 4th qtr

Flash said...
This is tense...
0:58 in the 4th qtr

Sunrise089 said...
@pickle, it's ok, they can just burn a timeout. They clearly consider that costless ;)
0:58 in the 4th qtr

James said...
I disagree Pickle. Still a good amount of time left and two timeouts (before the last play). If that's what the Pats are giving you then I'll take it.
0:58 in the 4th qtr

ET said...
Does Flacco silence his critics here?
1:05 in the 4th qtr

Jason said...
This game makes me want to vomit
1:05 in the 4th qtr

Pickle said...
No short passes in the middle, Baltimore. Bad idea.
1:09 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
Absolutely defensible call to pass rather than run by NE there.
1:44 in the 4th qtr

Ian S said...
Pickle - possibly. Would have been interesting if they'd had 4th-3 rather than 4th-6.
1:44 in the 4th qtr

Flash said...
But they definitely should have gone for the 4th and inches from the 3.
1:56 in the 4th qtr

Pickle said...
All right, Baltimore, don't score too quickly.
1:56 in the 4th qtr

Jon said...
Stuff can still happen, big time.
1:56 in the 4th qtr

Walker said...
Incomplete pass. Huge for the Ravens, even though NE was right to actually try to convert instead of just running up the gut.
1:56 in the 4th qtr

James said...
Flacco gets his chance to write his own narrative.
1:56 in the 4th qtr

Pickle said...
Harbaugh recognizing the difficulty of kicking in the cold?
1:56 in the 4th qtr

Jason said...
its clock killing time...
1:56 in the 4th qtr

Michael said...
Zach, I really expected the Pats to do as you described. Given that it's Brady and Belichick, I'm especially surprised.
1:56 in the 4th qtr

Chris said...
Well, if your choice is a 40% chance of making a field goal vs. a 40% chance of a first down (numbers pulled outta my rear), which could then lead to a touchdown or a more surefire field goal, I think it's the better of two crappy choices.
1:56 in the 4th qtr

Tony said...
Zach, I'm guessing that's a result of the riskiness inherent in a 50 yard field goal.
1:56 in the 4th qtr

Zach said...
Lucky break for the 2 min warning for Baltimore. I would've passed it or gone long if I were the Pats because the clock would stop anyway.
1:56 in the 4th qtr

Zach said...
4th and inches from the 3: FG 4th and 6th from the 30: go for it ??
2:46 in the 4th qtr

Tom said...
Good call to go for it though?
2:46 in the 4th qtr

Flash said...
Yes! Their OL is terrible
2:46 in the 4th qtr

Pickle said...
What's the story of this game? Baltimore's poor offensive line?
2:46 in the 4th qtr

Chris said...
Particularly, given the outcome of that play.
2:46 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
That timeout was enormously costly.
2:53 in the 4th qtr

Michael said...
For some reason I find it very interesting that Brian, the internet champion of going for it on 4th down, will watch his team's fate largely be determined by a 4th down call.
2:53 in the 4th qtr

Pickle said...
Okay, interception on a deep ball. Just got the wrong guy.
6:29 in the 4th qtr

Ian S said...
Sometimes a simple WPA number doesn't do a play justice
7:07 in the 4th qtr

ET said...
Noway!!!!
7:07 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
That's just a play.
7:22 in the 4th qtr

Matt said...
Incredible INT.
7:22 in the 4th qtr

Steven said...
Probably, Jon, unless Brady does that.
7:22 in the 4th qtr

Pickle said...
What.
7:22 in the 4th qtr

Jon said...
oh damn
7:22 in the 4th qtr

Jon said...
alright guys, not quite, but patriots will take it.
7:22 in the 4th qtr

KenR said...
Worst decision of the day for Flacco
7:22 in the 4th qtr

Josh said...
And there it is.
8:13 in the 4th qtr

Steven said...
On the other hand, if he does that, he will be.
8:13 in the 4th qtr

Jon said...
heee, teeeheee
8:13 in the 4th qtr

Steven said...
Flacco is especially unlikely to be intercepted if Baltimore keeps running the ball.
8:13 in the 4th qtr

Matt said...
I am a Giants homer, but Phil Simms scores pretty high on the "inane" scale.
8:51 in the 4th qtr

Pickle said...
I don't see that happening. I've a hard time seeing Flacco throw an interception except on a deep ball.
9:39 in the 4th qtr

Jon said...
no, but I'm hoping for a Flacco pick6 :)
11:29 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
Flacco must have triple the rushing yds of the next highest BAL rusher.
11:29 in the 4th qtr

Paul said...
Exciting factor going to be huge for this game.
11:29 in the 4th qtr

Raven Fans said...
Anyone else crossing their fingers when Brady went up in the air for something bad to happen?
11:29 in the 4th qtr

hieu said...
NE takes back confidence
11:29 in the 4th qtr

Kulko said...
Although I would think you could reach the goal line even witjhout jumping in, and how do you stop that?
11:29 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
Brady sold out for that one. He earned it.
11:29 in the 4th qtr

Pickle said...
Seriously, how do you stop that?
11:29 in the 4th qtr

Walker said...
Like that.
12:19 in the 4th qtr

Jon said...
yessssssssssssssss
12:19 in the 4th qtr

Walker said...
Key clutch cargo decision here. I bet BB goes for it.
12:19 in the 4th qtr

Pickle said...
I bet this holds up.
12:21 in the 4th qtr

Pickle said...
Baltimore wasn't ready for that snap.
14:35 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
ouch. Looks like Roethlisberger's injury. Pollard kills NE again.
0:43 in the 3rd qtr

Ken R said...
The Pats didn't plan for Flacco's running.
0:50 in the 3rd qtr

Pickle said...
Well, at least the ball was in good position.
0:50 in the 3rd qtr

Jon said...
ouchhhh.
2:51 in the 3rd qtr

Pickle said...
Very prescient comment regarding turnovers, James.
3:26 in the 3rd qtr

Matt said...
That's gotta be a sizable WP swing.
3:38 in the 3rd qtr

Steven said...
They really should have given a 15-yd fighting penalty; I assume they just didn't know whom to charge.
3:38 in the 3rd qtr

Flash said...
How's the blood pressure Brian?! This could go either way
3:38 in the 3rd qtr

Brian said...
True, Pickle. A 15-yd fighting penalty could have huge leverage in a game like this.
3:38 in the 3rd qtr

Pickle said...
Wow, no flag for offside? Referee objectivity at an all time low.
3:38 in the 3rd qtr

Brian said...
4 down territory.
4:34 in the 3rd qtr

Pickle said...
This game is really chippy for how close it is.
5:08 in the 3rd qtr

Joe Flacco said...
I just discovered I have legs and am ambulatory.
5:08 in the 3rd qtr

Max said...
Re: Brian and letting clock run out at the end of 1st half. It's got to be a situation where the WP doesn't change much for either team, right? If this is true, perhaps it's less an indication of coach conservatism and more of a mutual indifference to minimal WP change.
9:06 in the 3rd qtr

Jonathan said...
Wow, bizarro conservativity from BB.
9:06 in the 3rd qtr

Kulko said...
I assume it was a go for it distance?
9:45 in the 3rd qtr

Jon said...
think they should've gone for it...still one possession.
9:45 in the 3rd qtr

Brian said...
Surprised NE is kicking here given their success up front.
9:45 in the 3rd qtr

H said...
should be over 49 too


Hieu said...
hope NE takes more points in 2ndH


Brian said...
I wonder about situations where both teams are happy to let the clock run out. Because football is always zero-sum, what's good for one team is always bad for the other. Both teams can't benefit from letting the clock run out. I think it shows the natural conservatism of coaches when they do that.


Jonathan said...
The Ravens easily could have called two timeouts and gotten the ball back with enough time for at least a shot at a FG or a blocked punt. Seriously, there was zero downside to stopping the clock. Brady's not going anywhere in 16 seconds.


Brian said...
That's true.


Matt said...
@Dan, I believe Brian said last week that the in-game graph does not take into account who gets the ball in 2nd half.


Jon said...
I believe the ball was still in the air.
3:00 in the 2nd qtr

Matt said...
Why wasn't that a catch? It looked like he got two feet in...
3:00 in the 2nd qtr

Dan said...
@Brian, does the model take into account who gets the ball in the 2nd half when calculating WP in the 1st?
3:00 in the 2nd qtr

Graham said...
This site is awesome
3:19 in the 2nd qtr

Walker said...
Tom Brady is killing my wave!
3:52 in the 2nd qtr

Brian said...
That pattern will stop if NE scores here because they get the ball first next half.
5:06 in the 2nd qtr

Walker said...
WP graph starting to resemble a sine wave. Hallmark of a hotly contested game.
7:56 in the 2nd qtr

Walker said...
Ravens offense suddenly remembers how bad the New England D is.
8:32 in the 2nd qtr

Brian said...
First successful run of the game for BAL. 5 yds.
10:35 in the 2nd qtr

Paul said...
Even if it was stopped, NE would've had to ball at the 3...odds are in Baltimore's favor that they would get the ball back with decent field position.
14:21 in the 2nd qtr

Walker said...
A conference championship is no place to kick where you ought to go for it.
14:21 in the 2nd qtr

sean said...
nah, maybe later in the game when the defense is weaker, but at this point it would have been assuredly stopped.
14:21 in the 2nd qtr

Paul said...
I would have gone for it there...
14:21 in the 2nd qtr

James said...
So I'm from the small sample size committee: The way the Ravens run game has done so far (7 carries for 7 yards), is kicking the right move there? I have to think going for half a yard is worth it.
14:21 in the 2nd qtr

Brian said...
O line is still getting schooled.
2:23 in the 1st qtr

Jon said...
How things change.
3:41 in the 1st qtr

James said...
The Ravens defense continue their absurd playoff turnover rate.
3:41 in the 1st qtr

Sunrise089 said...
@Brian, Might it be balanced out by Brady trying to repeat his performance in the first Bills game?
3:41 in the 1st qtr

Brian said...
This game is over. For some reason, the BAL offensive line has decided not to show up.
5:00 in the 1st qtr

Steve said...
Any research on the rate at which penalties like the one on Webb are committed vs called. That has been illegal since 1978 but the Pats used to do it on every down. You'd have to have footage from a lot of angles and a ton of manpower or awesome computer vision but... maybe?
5:49 in the 1st qtr

James said...
Man, that was a TD. Still might get it, but Brady missed it.
7:46 in the 1st qtr





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