In-Game Win Probability
test


Name:

Comment:


Refresh comments


1 said...
-1'


1 said...
1


1 said...
1


-1' said...
1


1 said...
-1'


Jonathan said...
Some brutal WPA numbers for both passing games, that's what happens when numerous consecutive defensive stands are followed by a muffed punt to end the game.


Shaun said...
this has to be pretty rare. Both games had significant differences in ANY/A... and the team with the lower ANY/A won each game: BAL: 7.10 NE: 3.89 NYG: 4.80 SF: 7.52 from the data i've looked at during the last few years, the winning team has the higher ANY/A the vast majority of the time. however, once you get to the point where one of the teams has an ANY/A of 2+ higher than the other, the winner is almost never the team with the lower one. i wonder if there's any significant compilation of this data somewhere.


MattieShoes said...
Kyle Williams MVP


Jonathan said...
I'll be at a Super Bowl party so I won't be here, but I'd like to thank you for all of your work. Not just Brian, but all of the other contributors that make this game a little more fun to watch. Mr. Burke, you win the internet.


Naeblis said...
Just like 1990 beat them in the regular season only to lose in the playoff.. Grr.. well hopefully just as then.. They beat the AFC..


James said...
Best site on the internet.


Pickle said...
What, not gonna be online for AFC-NFC?


Brian said...
Thanks all. See you in 2 weeks.


Brian said...
Matt-thanks. Josh--that's a bug from the data feed. They sent a bogus update.


ESPN said...
Defense still wins championships. The team that gives up fewer points in the Super Bowl will win.


Tim said...
Note to Pam Oliver & Fox: Kickers are not great interviews. Not that anyone else is much better, but still.. Brain, thanks for all the fantastic work.


josh said...
@Brian yeah man this is an awesome site keep up the good work


Matt said...
@Brian Thanks for running a great site and having a place for all of us to chat!


josh said...
only a .61 chance to win


Pickle said...
Well, hopefully First Take will lead off with a Tebow story, just for old time's sake.
7:06 in OT

Matt said...
Weatherford for MVP
7:06 in OT

Jay said...
Welp.
7:06 in OT

Dan said...
*whew*
7:10 in OT

Brian said...
This is so weird. Big huge 250+lb people slamming into each other up and down the field for 60+ minutes. But to decide the game, bring in a Scottish dude to kick the ball 30 yds.
7:10 in OT

Walker said...
Well, I know what storyline the talking heads on ESPN will be pushing all this week and next.
7:10 in OT

Pickle said...
Man, I'm just glad I'm on PST. Sorry for you guys on Eastern.
7:10 in OT

Jonathan said...
Still a 90% shot from here. But that delay of game was pathetic.
7:10 in OT

Jay said...
Maybe the double.icing will do something
7:10 in OT

josh said...
nice delay of game make it interesting lol
7:13 in OT

Matt said...
**HEAD EXPLODES**
7:13 in OT

Dan said...
How do you get a delay of game here? That's just ridiculous
7:16 in OT

Seriosity said...
Might not mean anything, but still inexcusable.
7:16 in OT

Jon said...
31 yader tricky
7:46 in OT

Pickle said...
Hey, an extra five yards is _not_ helpful on a field goal from the center.
7:46 in OT

Matt said...
Eli is not graceful.
8:18 in OT

Jay said...
@Brian yes, yes... Rub it in. I fell into the same thought trap though. I read the article and thought "no way, not my niners".
8:18 in OT

Dan said...
Feels like the Giants are playing with fire here
8:42 in OT

adam said...
Brian, congrats on your prediction odds they look much better than my naive guess.
8:42 in OT

Jonathan said...
There's the game, now they've escaped FG attempt range and gotten into legit FG range.
8:42 in OT

BenW said...
Where is that commenter from the Playoff Prediction post? The one who kept bugging Brian about ignoring SF's extra-special ability on special teams play?
9:32 in OT

Boston Chris said...
He'll make it, b/c he's not Billy Cundiff.
9:32 in OT

josh said...
@ steven yeah after billy cundiff's gaff
9:32 in OT

Justin said...
@Tim +1 :), it's 41 yards from here, wouldn't call that a gimmie
9:32 in OT

Brian said...
Oh yeah. Suck it Special Teams-obsessed commenters.
9:32 in OT

Boston Chris said...
How about them SF Special Teams...and winning the turnover battle....oh....that's the problem with hard to repeat "skills".
9:32 in OT

josh said...
i guess they really miss ted ginn jr
9:32 in OT

Steven said...
The question is, can the Giants' kicker miss a short field goal?
9:32 in OT

James said...
Just don't pull a Cundiff!
9:32 in OT

Brian said...
I read some guy in the NYT write something about how turnover luck is bound to catch up to SF. Can't remember his name.
9:32 in OT

Tim said...
Giants in field goal *attempt* range
9:32 in OT

Jonathan said...
Wow...how about the San Francisco special teams regressing to the mean, eh?
9:32 in OT

Matt said...
Field goals are not automatic. We all watched the early game, right?
9:32 in OT

Jay said...
Welp.
9:32 in OT

Justin said...
At the rate Manning's been sacked, if I'm the Giants, I almost want to kick the FG on first down.
9:32 in OT

Michael said...
Billy Cundiff wishes to remind us that this game is not over (sorry Brian).
9:32 in OT

Naeblis said...
MUFFS KILLED US
10:04 in OT

Pickle said...
Huge-er play.
10:04 in OT

josh said...
and theres the game
10:04 in OT

adam said...
Oh wow, heck of a game for Thomas. You gotta feel for Williams.
10:04 in OT

Naeblis said...
GG all tis over.. j
10:04 in OT

Jon said...
holy
10:04 in OT

Walker said...
Wow. I mean, wow.
10:04 in OT

Justin said...
Wow
10:04 in OT

Dan said...
Never mind, thanks for the sack!
10:04 in OT

Matt said...
HUGER PLAY!
10:04 in OT

Michael said...
I think they'd have to do a 2nd halftime show. I've participated in a 14th inning stretch in baseball before...
10:04 in OT

Jay said...
I love how active the crowd has been this game. I also love the 49ers D
10:04 in OT

Jon said...
what can manning do?
10:04 in OT

Matt said...
Huge play. Sigh.
10:09 in OT

Dan said...
Oh, come on. Can we get some pass blocking, please?
10:09 in OT

Brian said...
Justin +1
10:09 in OT

Brian said...
In the reg season I think there are 2 TOs. Now it is "regular timing rules."
10:13 in OT

Justin said...
If the Superbowl plays two OTs and takes a second halftime, does Madonna have to come back out? I hope not.
10:13 in OT

Dan said...
@Michael: Okay, that's a fair dig. :)
10:13 in OT

adam said...
Guess, so, though I liked the explainations.
10:13 in OT

Justin said...
In Playoff OT, "timing rules are as if it's a new game" I assume that means 3 time outs. And possibly another halftime :).
10:13 in OT

Michael said...
You guys are making fun of Hochuli's explanations, but it seems you didn't even listen to him. It's as though there's a new game, so presumably that includes TOs.
10:13 in OT

Tim said...
Giants steadily gaining on field position...
10:13 in OT

Dan said...
@adam: I was just wondering the same thing
10:13 in OT

adam said...
I thought they only got 2 time outs in OT, is that just in the regular season or is Fox mixing this up?
10:13 in OT

adam said...
I thought they only got 2 time outs in OT, is that just in the regular season or is Fox mixing this up?
10:13 in OT

Jon said...
i'll dance with ya
10:57 in OT

Seriosity said...
Anyone in the mood for some salsa?
12:02 in OT

Jay said...
@Seriosity - I would have
12:02 in OT

Matt said...
These commercials are really messing up the tension
12:02 in OT

Matt said...
Gotta feel like this Giants offense is going to break a big play sooner or later.
12:21 in OT

Dan said...
@Seriosity: At least the 49ers have a legitimate run game, though it didn't show on that play.
12:21 in OT

Seriosity said...
Should they go for it?!
12:26 in OT

Seriosity said...
2nd and 10, another run.
13:25 in OT

Brian said...
Hoculi sure isn't "microphone-shy."
13:38 in OT

Dan said...
Are we sure it's sudden death now? Hochuli should come out and explain, just to be clear
13:50 in OT

Walker said...
Why will nobody comply with my wish to see the new OT rules actually have some effect? It's as though the players aren't aware of what I want or don't care.
13:50 in OT

Jonathan said...
Well, we are back to regular old sudden death.
13:50 in OT

Brian said...
Ok, now it's accurate.
14:27 in OT

Jon said...
damn it
14:27 in OT

Dan said...
And, the obligatory run up the middle on 2nd & 10 *sigh*
14:36 in OT

Zach said...
When do the new OT rules get used for the regular season?
14:36 in OT

Brian said...
I have the model for the OT rules, but all the code for tracking which "OT state" we're in isn't there, (e.g. first possession, second possession FG scored, second possession no FG scored...)
14:36 in OT

James said...
Cruz had him beat but Eli underthrew it.
14:43 in OT

Pickle said...
Ah, 49er fratricide.
14:43 in OT

Pickle said...
You're going to re-code after the season's over, right? You haven't altered it for new OT rules, iirc.
15:00 in OT

Brian said...
Thanks!
15:00 in OT

Dan said...
I'm with @Naeblis--thanks so much the hard work you put in!
15:00 in OT

Brian said...
Good question. I don't remember! I coded everything 3 years ago. I doubt it. I do remember coding it for infinite OTs for NCAA bball after that Syracuse-UConn? game a couple years ago.
15:00 in OT

Naeblis said...
@Brian, if you are the person who created this site.. mega kudos man.. your work is much appreciated.. hats off to ya
15:00 in OT

Dan said...
The Giants are getting the ball
15:00 in OT

Pickle said...
Brian, I suggest complaining to Comcast and trying to score a free month of service.
15:00 in OT

myoorlittleheart said...
is there a reason the likelihood hasn't returned to 50/50?
15:00 in OT

Tim said...
Just curious, Brian, does your graph expand past 1st OT if needed?
15:00 in OT

Brett said...
Hochuli should have been a kindergarten teacher.
15:00 in OT

Brian said...
In DC, we're getting 15 second comcast commercials in error, that are interrupting the game. Weird. And totally rude.
15:00 in OT

Jon said...
tv doing fine in PA
15:00 in OT

Walker said...
Very eloquent, Ed Hochuli.
15:00 in OT

Pickle said...
Crowd is eating up Hochuli's explanations.
15:00 in OT

matt said...
It has cut out early twice already for me. I'm in MD
15:00 in OT

Sunrise089 said...
@Brian - 20 miles from you and on FiOS with no interruptions ;)
0:04 in the 4th qtr

Michael said...
Is it wrong of me to root for a botched snap on a field goal attempt? Bonus points if the holder then throws for a TD :)
0:04 in the 4th qtr

Dan said...
@Jonathan: Fair enough. :) Just figured I'd point out that this time around, the punter wasn't really to blame.
0:04 in the 4th qtr

Jonathan said...
"Anything can happen." Yes Mr. Aikman, the chances of the Giants scoring on that play are such a serious threat. smh.
0:04 in the 4th qtr

Jay said...
I don't think SF can win it in OT
0:04 in the 4th qtr

Pickle said...
Comcast out here in California still doing okay by me.
0:04 in the 4th qtr

Naeblis said...
I have fios and it has not cut out
0:04 in the 4th qtr

Dan said...
@Brian: Nope, still have the game here
0:04 in the 4th qtr

Matt said...
Not I. (Over-the-air HDTV here.)
0:04 in the 4th qtr

Jonathan said...
I considered the snap as part of the punt. :p
0:04 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
Is everyone else having the game cut out by random Comcast commercials?
0:04 in the 4th qtr

Matt said...
Surprised at taking a TO, Joe Buck? Come on.
0:04 in the 4th qtr

Jon said...
what a crazy day
0:12 in the 4th qtr

Naeblis said...
They need to go air it down the field
0:12 in the 4th qtr

Pickle said...
49ers pretty much need to gain field-goal position here.
0:12 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
Warning: OT WP won't be correct until the initial possessions are through.
0:12 in the 4th qtr

Jared said...
OK, thanks Brian
0:19 in the 4th qtr

naeblis said...
what kinda play was that
0:19 in the 4th qtr

Pickle said...
Might as well have sailed it into the end zone.
0:19 in the 4th qtr

Dan said...
@Jonathan: The snap was super low; I think that threw him off
0:19 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
Zach is correct. It's just the actual empirical rate of conversion, not the go-for-it rate.
0:19 in the 4th qtr

Jonathan said...
I think you gotta punt there. But that punt was awful.
0:19 in the 4th qtr

James said...
Really? I wouldn't go for it. Too many timeouts, too close to take a no-downside field goal at winning the game. Field position matters here.
0:27 in the 4th qtr

Zach said...
Jared: It assumes a punt I think
0:27 in the 4th qtr

KenR said...
Should NY go for it on 4th & 4?
0:27 in the 4th qtr

Walker said...
I really hope we get to see the new OT rules have some meaningful effect on the outcome of this game. The Tebow Fiasco really disappointed me.
0:27 in the 4th qtr

Jared said...
How come it's only a 4% chance of converting the first when it was 4th&4?
0:27 in the 4th qtr

Dan said...
@Zach: same here
0:27 in the 4th qtr

Pickle said...
Ah, playing for OT.
0:27 in the 4th qtr

Zach said...
I would go for it here
0:27 in the 4th qtr

Naeblis said...
Finally we stopped Cruz on 3rd down.. lets see what 4th brings
0:32 in the 4th qtr

Dan said...
Scary, scary throw
0:32 in the 4th qtr

Matt said...
Anything classified as "wisdom" says not to run there.
0:32 in the 4th qtr

James said...
That run gained them two yards and cost them 20 seconds and a down. What the hell?
0:32 in the 4th qtr

Walker said...
Even conventional wisdom says not to run there.
0:32 in the 4th qtr

Eli said...
too
0:54 in the 4th qtr

Dan said...
Really, Gilbride, that's the play call?
0:54 in the 4th qtr

Eli said...
I didn't check-down to early on that one, Brian.
1:05 in the 4th qtr

naeblis said...
holy bleep.. defend dat
1:14 in the 4th qtr

Jon said...
tyree moment hehe
1:14 in the 4th qtr

sf said...
Why do the Giants have a higher win probability when they have negative expected points?
1:14 in the 4th qtr

naeblis said...
holy bleep.. defend dat
1:14 in the 4th qtr

James said...
How was that not a sack?!
1:14 in the 4th qtr

Pickle said...
Wow, I thought Manning was trying to throw that away.
1:14 in the 4th qtr

Dan said...
Hey, a completed pass!
1:14 in the 4th qtr

Jared said...
This will be the third two-minute drill in the past minute...
1:18 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
The WP swings are huge. Big defensive plays.
1:29 in the 4th qtr

Dan said...
This is insane; doesn't either offense want to win? :)
1:29 in the 4th qtr

Matt said...
How many 3-and-outs can they squeeze into these final minutes?
1:29 in the 4th qtr

Walker said...
Where were all these overthrows last week, Alex?
1:29 in the 4th qtr

Jon said...
yeshhhhh
1:33 in the 4th qtr

naeblis said...
Throwing the the field gnomes
1:39 in the 4th qtr

Jonathan said...
It's weird to think that that 3 and out was worth 17% of a championship.
1:39 in the 4th qtr

Dan said...
Seriously, I really hope we make the stop here, though with decisions like that, not sure we deserve it
1:39 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
On 4th and 1st downs it's more reliable. .33/.67 is good for this point in the game.
1:47 in the 4th qtr

Jonathan said...
That timeout is killing the Giants right now...
1:47 in the 4th qtr

Jared said...
And now the WP is coming into line...
1:55 in the 4th qtr

Dan said...
Ah, okay, thanks. That makes sense.
2:00 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
The live updates don't do well deep into series. 3rd and longs are tough for it. It uses a different algorithm than the final numbers.
2:00 in the 4th qtr

Tim said...
At this point, EP is probably less relevant than P(any score).
2:00 in the 4th qtr

Dan said...
I'm surprised the Giants are 60% to win here, especially given the -0.9 EP
2:00 in the 4th qtr

Jonathan said...
Good no call.
2:00 in the 4th qtr

KenR said...
That sack was a high leverage play.
2:51 in the 4th qtr

Matt said...
Looks like that TO already coming into play. #terriblesack
3:04 in the 4th qtr

Jon said...
GOD, some protection please
3:04 in the 4th qtr

Dan said...
Or get sacked on 1st
3:04 in the 4th qtr

Dan said...
Right, either that or they score too fast
3:04 in the 4th qtr

Jonathan said...
Was that really a 60 yard punt?? And a net of 50. Huge play.
3:04 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
Agree. If Giants go 3-and-out, the TO only helps SF.
3:12 in the 4th qtr

Dan said...
Not sure I like that time out
3:12 in the 4th qtr

Naeblis said...
Every time i hear tucks name called I get flash backs to the raiders game. and OMG convert a fing 3rd down already
3:44 in the 4th qtr

Matt said...
YES!
3:44 in the 4th qtr

Seriosity said...
2 and 10 run. How surprising.
3:44 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
Agree. Eli went to his safety valve way to early.
4:07 in the 4th qtr

Dan said...
Why would you rely on YAC on 3rd and 8 against this team? Throw it past the marker!
4:38 in the 4th qtr

Matt said...
Lots of credit to this SF defense.
4:38 in the 4th qtr

Dan said...
Yep, split the uprights
5:39 in the 4th qtr

Naeblis said...
did they show the field goal? I must have blinked
5:39 in the 4th qtr

Dan said...
@Brian: Our condolences. Drinking heavily after a game like that is totally understandable.
6:03 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
And yes, I've been drinking heavily!
7:17 in the 4th qtr

Naeblis said...
its ALIVE.. The offense is ALIVE!
7:39 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
Giants can't stop the run tonight.
7:39 in the 4th qtr

James said...
It was there that time! Good run, Smith.
7:48 in the 4th qtr

Matt said...
That holding penalty would have seemed like a turning point if they didn't pull that off.
8:34 in the 4th qtr

Jonathan said...
Manning doesn't wanna kick OR go for it on 4th down.
8:34 in the 4th qtr

Matt said...
Incredible.
8:34 in the 4th qtr

Jon said...
yessssssss
8:52 in the 4th qtr

James said...
So is this 4 down territory? 3 helps you some but not much, but it's not going to be an easy 4th.
9:10 in the 4th qtr

Jonathan said...
Or at least on the same level.
9:48 in the 4th qtr

Jonathan said...
That was one of the most heartbreaking ways in the world to lose. Worse than Favre with the Vikings.
9:48 in the 4th qtr

Dan said...
Talk about top priority during the draft this year
10:32 in the 4th qtr

Dan said...
Gotta love seeing the entire left side of the line get knocked on their asses immediately.
10:32 in the 4th qtr

Jon said...
Well, his passion for this game is 100x any of ours. Understandable.
11:08 in the 4th qtr

Matt said...
Giants run ::face palm::
11:08 in the 4th qtr

Jonathan said...
Glad to be wrong.
11:06 in the 4th qtr

Pickle said...
Brian hasn't said anything since the 2nd quarter. Is he drinking to forget?
11:06 in the 4th qtr

Steve said...
it's easy to prove it hit his leg, Newton's 2nd law says F = ma.
11:06 in the 4th qtr

James said...
Can't you prove it hits his leg when the rotation of the ball changes in mid air?
11:06 in the 4th qtr

Jonathan said...
I think the call is gonna stand. I'm surprised the announcers are so confident.
11:06 in the 4th qtr

Jonathan said...
How do you overturn this? It's hard to prove it hit his leg.
11:06 in the 4th qtr

Dan said...
@James: Well noted--I'd forgotten that rule.
11:06 in the 4th qtr

Matt said...
@James @Dan That's right, thanks!
11:06 in the 4th qtr

Jonathan said...
Did they really blow the whistle there??
11:06 in the 4th qtr

Dan said...
@Matt: That's right. The play's dead where the whistle blew.
11:06 in the 4th qtr

James said...
@Matt, muffed punts are not returnable in any case. As soon as the punting team gains possession the play is dead.
11:06 in the 4th qtr

Jonathan said...
I can't imagine Patriot fans are particularly daunted by the way these teams are playing right now.
11:06 in the 4th qtr

James said...
That's a turnover!!!
11:06 in the 4th qtr

Matt said...
What's the rule if they overturn it? They can't award Giants a TD because they blew the whistle, right?
11:06 in the 4th qtr

Dan said...
Whoops!
11:17 in the 4th qtr

Jon said...
Offensive line is letting Eli down so bad...the pressure they get on a three man rush
11:31 in the 4th qtr

Dan said...
Seriously, how long did Eli think he had?
12:17 in the 4th qtr

Jonathan said...
Okay you have Frank Gore, you're in plus territory, thanks for punting!
13:04 in the 4th qtr

Dan said...
@Matt: Only down 4 with the whole quarter to go? It's far from over.
13:04 in the 4th qtr

Matt said...
Even without believing in momentum, feeling pretty lousy as a Giants homer.
15:00 in the 4th qtr

Jonathan said...
Thaaat makes sense.
3:45 in the 3rd qtr

James said...
@Jonathan, the danger is a defender running into a punter's plant leg and completely destroying his knee and career. It happened on a Christmas day game this year. Ankles and wrists injuries are also possible from falling awkwardly. In a way the punter is the ultimate defenseless receiver.
4:33 in the 3rd qtr

Jonathan said...
I now look a little smarter. Thanks, Bradshaw.
4:33 in the 3rd qtr

Naeblis said...
rematch blah.. no one wanted to see a bills Dallas rematch. Everyone wanted a Niners vs Montana lead Chiefs Superbowl but we know how that one turned out.
4:33 in the 3rd qtr

Jonathan said...
LOL, not to mention an extension of the New York/Boston rivalry.
4:53 in the 3rd qtr

Matt said...
How hard is the NFL rooting for the Giants to pull this out to setup the rematch?
5:18 in the 3rd qtr

Dan said...
@Jonathan: You'll only look stupid if Bradshaw takes the ensuing first down handoff 80 yards.
5:18 in the 3rd qtr

Jonathan said...
...now I look stupid.
5:26 in the 3rd qtr

Jonathan said...
NYG needs to stop running on 1st down, and SF needs to stop throwing on 1st down. Way to much setting up, not nearly enough of, um, getting points.
7:00 in the 3rd qtr

Jonathan said...
I've always thought that the rule against hitting the kicker while going for a block is a bit lame. It's not like kickers ever get hurt.
8:08 in the 3rd qtr

Matt said...
Giants have been close to blocking punts all postseason. That's the danger. Not that costly this time.
9:32 in the 3rd qtr

Jonathan said...
Some really horrible decisions by players on both teams here.
11:28 in the 3rd qtr

Pickle said...
Defensive holding and illegal contact are such back-breaking penalties. 5 yards and automatic first down? Can't have that on third and long.
11:28 in the 3rd qtr

Dan said...
Ugh, illegal contact on 3rd & 19? Ouch.
12:07 in the 3rd qtr

Naeblis said...
Really!! a diving catch on a wet field for a punt return?
13:34 in the 3rd qtr

Jonathan said...
They wanna get Frank Gore more involved. If he keeps getting 5 yards a clip, the 49er offense will be tough to stop.
15:00 in the 3rd qtr

Naeblis said...
Yea but it would put them in a Pickle


Pickle said...
That's silly, James. They'll just throw it to someone else.
0:02 in the 2nd qtr

Naeblis said...
@Jame, Yea would help some
0:02 in the 2nd qtr

Naeblis said...
@Pickle, I thought it was more like a chicken dance
0:06 in the 2nd qtr

James said...
The 49ers should consider covering Cruz in the second half.
0:06 in the 2nd qtr

Pickle said...
Eli doing his best Chris Webber impression.
0:20 in the 2nd qtr

Dan said...
.....wow
0:20 in the 2nd qtr

James said...
I agree, Jay, except it isn't there if you only get 3 yards on 3rd and 9.
1:03 in the 2nd qtr

Dan said...
Tynes apparently hit from 53 during pregame, but I'm guessing they want to get a bit closer than that.
1:03 in the 2nd qtr

Matt said...
No TOs here really emphasizes how costly some of those earlier wasted TOs were.
1:03 in the 2nd qtr

Pickle said...
All right, Fox, what's the target line?
1:30 in the 2nd qtr

Dan said...
@Steven: Thanks. Guess I should've stopped by for the early game!
2:51 in the 2nd qtr

Steven said...
@Dan, no it doesn't. I learned that a few hours ago. :-)
2:51 in the 2nd qtr

Jay said...
I'm liking this Alex guy. I'm partial to a QB who isn't afraid to take off with the ball if it's there.
4:05 in the 2nd qtr

Dan said...
Just curious--does WP take into account that the Giants are getting the ball to start the 2nd half?
4:05 in the 2nd qtr

Dan said...
@Jonathan: I think that was one of those plays that wouldn't have been overturned, regardless of how it was called on field. Just too close.
4:42 in the 2nd qtr

Jonathan said...
By the way, I was watching replay of the Pats/Ravens game. I don't think that near-TD at the end would have been overturned if they reviewed it.
5:28 in the 2nd qtr

Pickle said...
There are some pretty strange plays going on this game.
5:54 in the 2nd qtr

Dan said...
How stupid do you have to be to call for a fair catch, then field a wet ball on the run?
5:54 in the 2nd qtr

Naeblis said...
what is the heck the the flying bird signal the giants were doing?
5:54 in the 2nd qtr

Pickle said...
Come on, stop being cute. Just go for it.
6:29 in the 2nd qtr

Jonathan said...
Gotta punt here. In unrelated news, I am rooting for the Giants.
7:04 in the 2nd qtr

Naeblis said...
Penalty then dropped pass on Davis. not good. he needs another TD to atone
7:04 in the 2nd qtr

Pickle said...
Did Vernon Davis get paid off? Is he trying to throw the game?
9:38 in the 2nd qtr

Dan said...
Wow, I figured that flag was on Boley for laying hands on a ref. Should've been.
9:38 in the 2nd qtr

Steven said...
They should run just often enough that the 49ers don't count on a pass every play.
11:15 in the 2nd qtr

Matt said...
That didn't look great, but I'll take it.
11:15 in the 2nd qtr

Brian said...
The Giants are #31 in run EPA/P and #4 in pass EPA/P for the year. They are a great passing team and a terrible running team playing against a great run defense. They should only be running in special situations.
11:25 in the 2nd qtr

Naeblis said...
I just wish we could stop Eli from passing on 3rd down :(
14:42 in the 2nd qtr

Dan said...
@Naeblis: I can respect that sentiment. :)
15:00 in the 2nd qtr

Brian said...
These commercials are killing me. I don't even feel like I'm watching a football game. It's just a string of bad commercials interrupted occasionally by some football.
15:00 in the 2nd qtr

Naeblis said...
Dan, the Giants need to atone for the Lenard Marshall hit on Joe in that championship game. So "death by a 1000 paper cuts" sounds great to me :)
15:00 in the 2nd qtr

Mark B said...
Has anyone looked at the "go for it" rate on 4th downs this season compared to previous seasons? Sure feels like the conventional wisdom may be catching up to the analysis. If it has, that sort of confirms Romer's conclusion about job preservation, doesn't it?
0:11 in the 1st qtr

Dan said...
2 yds/carry is miserable in any weather. The Giants need to start doing something or SF is going to keep playing their "death by 1000 paper cuts" game.
0:26 in the 1st qtr

Brian said...
Offenses need to force defenses to defend the whole field on 4th down. The playcalling tendencies allow defenses to stack the line. Play action, roll-outs, a deep pass now and then would open things up at the line.
0:40 in the 1st qtr

Jonathan said...
In this weather, you don't want to be the team that can't get more than 2 yards/carry.
2:14 in the 1st qtr

Pickle said...
Right, run the ball on 2nd and 20. Look forward to punting.
2:14 in the 1st qtr

Naeblis said...
that reverse was horrible
2:14 in the 1st qtr

Pickle said...
Right, but a team has to be able to pick up _one yard_ minimum when it matters, even running the ball. This bodes poorly for NY.
2:14 in the 1st qtr

Dan said...
[/sarcasm]
2:14 in the 1st qtr

Dan said...
Well, at least they're sticking with the run.
2:14 in the 1st qtr

Matt said...
Tough choice to run or pass there. Usually I like run there, but SF is so good against the run.
2:14 in the 1st qtr

Pickle said...
Seriously, how can Jacobs run so small?
2:24 in the 1st qtr

Jonathan said...
Poor footing,. Too long for FG. Plus it's just 4th & 1.
2:24 in the 1st qtr

Jonathan said...
I was half expecting him to go "Now STFU and stop complaining about how the refs hate your team."
4:57 in the 1st qtr

Pickle said...
I couldn't remember Hochuli's name, so I googled referee biceps. His wikipedia page is the first link returned. :D
6:14 in the 1st qtr

James said...
I'll give him a break, he was just trying to be clear that he can't tell from the video so he cannot overturn the play.
7:05 in the 1st qtr

Jonathan said...
I love how the ref was almost trolling the entire audience there.
7:11 in the 1st qtr

Matt said...
Thanks, professor referee.
7:11 in the 1st qtr

Pickle said...
What on earth, Ed Hochuli?
7:11 in the 1st qtr

Dan said...
Odd that the ref would put it that way; makes it sound like he thinks the call is wrong.
7:11 in the 1st qtr

Kurt said...
Just perpetuating the misconception that the running game is all-important, that's all. Plus, it's Buck and Aikman - would you expect any less?
7:24 in the 1st qtr

Brian said...
Because running has metaphysical virtue that only the appointed can see. 2 yd gain. Stuff. 2yd gain. Stuff.
7:44 in the 1st qtr

Jay said...
Gotta love the commentators... "they need to stick with the run even when it doesn't work."
9:01 in the 1st qtr





2012012201