In-Game Win Probability
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NFL-FAN said...
Hi Brian, do you happen to have a spreadsheet (or formula embedded within a spreadsheet) that similar to the "Expected Points" for "Win Probability" that we can download? Thanks so much and keep up the great work.


Juls said...
I want to see Saine get some real pilnayg time. He is just so fast and speed kills. The G men are desperate but desperate teams are truly prone to make big mistakes. I hope the Packers will do a lot of what is known as counter plays to take advantage of the G men desperation. With Saine in there with his speed the G men D will need to crowd the line of scrimage therefore giving our receivers a real chance to get behind them quickly.It appeared to me in the lions game when the two back up linebackers were in along with Neal. Our defense seemed to move faster/quicker to the ball. I hope this continues.Like or Dislike: 0  0


Juls said...
I want to see Saine get some real pilnayg time. He is just so fast and speed kills. The G men are desperate but desperate teams are truly prone to make big mistakes. I hope the Packers will do a lot of what is known as counter plays to take advantage of the G men desperation. With Saine in there with his speed the G men D will need to crowd the line of scrimage therefore giving our receivers a real chance to get behind them quickly.It appeared to me in the lions game when the two back up linebackers were in along with Neal. Our defense seemed to move faster/quicker to the ball. I hope this continues.Like or Dislike: 0  0


Dan said...
I had a debate w/ a friend - if BB allows Bradshaw to score on first down instead of second therefore allowing the Patriots to have an additional TO and a couple seconds on the clock => how much would that move the WP?


Tom Coughlin said...
Well, that play alone dropped our WP from .94 to .85. I'm thinking our WP would have been ~98 if he takes a knee on the one. He will be scolded.


Independent George said...
What's the WPA differential between Bradshaw scoring the TD versus downing it at the 1?


bluto said...
Tuck would have been my choice, though it was pretty tight with Eli and Nicks both having solid games.


Brian said...
Manning is definitely deserving with .70 WPA. Still, look at the NE O-line numbers: -0.21 -WPA. Very unlike them. NYG def line really did some damage.


Brian said...
The Giants defense collectively should get most of the credit, holding NE to just 17.


Joshua Northey said...
Pickle- This was a game where there really was no "MVP". Several people on the giants played well. Eli was the most important, but that is normal he is the QB. Who cares anyway, it only matters to the daft hall of fame voters who understand almost nothing about evaluating the game?


Pickle said...
Eli as MVP? Thoughts?


Marc said...
Do the people filming it on their phones realise this is going to be on TV?


Jason said...
Drew, I like that we both decided 15 men was the appropriate amount.


Drew said...
Here's a thought - why don't the Giants just put 15 men on the field every play near the end? Yes, they lose 5 yards, but the clock runs...


tunesmith said...
So, the super bowl game winning td was *that*?


Joshua Northey said...
Jason- Yeah I think we might see the competition committee look at that one.


Jason said...
I'd like to second Giles. This was my first season with the website. I really enjoyed it. Thanks for everything Brian.


matthew said...
gronk would of got it without te ankle sprain he couldent dive for the game winner


Jason said...
Wait, you can have 12 men on the field and you still get to burn the clock? Send 15 men on the field every play!


Giles said...
And that's another season. Thanks, as always, for the site Brian.


Joshua Northey said...
Walker- I am sure you have never made a mistake at your job. I know I never make any mistakes, I am perfect, why cannot the football players be like me?
0:09 in the 4th qtr

Michael said...
Maybe they wanted to make it 23-17 to make Plaxico's prediction correct, albeit 4 years late :)
0:15 in the 4th qtr

Giles said...
There is always the outside chance of a blocked PAT which could result in a tie. A 5 point lead is meaningless.
0:15 in the 4th qtr

Marc said...
Because touchdown and missed extra point would be a tie.
0:15 in the 4th qtr

Walker said...
12 men again? Do these people even know the rules?
0:15 in the 4th qtr

Jon said...
it didn't really matter.
0:17 in the 4th qtr

Joshua Northey said...
In case NE missed the XP.
0:17 in the 4th qtr

Pickle said...
Why did the giants go for two? I don't get it.
0:39 in the 4th qtr

Giles said...
Wow I was ready to call it over
0:39 in the 4th qtr

Giles said...
Why don't the Pats have any of those sticky gloves Brian told us about?
0:36 in the 4th qtr

matthew said...
the superbowl is on this play
0:36 in the 4th qtr

Joshua Northey said...
Steve , I love Brian's site, but lets not fall into the trap of "Bill James is god". Brian is part of a pretty large movement, he is not the movement.
0:52 in the 4th qtr

Walker said...
These drops are killing the Pats.
0:57 in the 4th qtr

Jon said...
this could come to be one of the greatest blunders of all time.
0:57 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
Ignore the graph saying .99 WP at the moment. The feed thinks Giants are getting the ball at their own 35 instead of kicking off.
0:57 in the 4th qtr

KenR said...
Awesome call.
0:57 in the 4th qtr

James said...
Video game logic has now become actual NFL logic.
0:57 in the 4th qtr

Walker said...
Bold strategy by Belichick. This is the kind of intelligent coaching I've come to expect from the man.
0:57 in the 4th qtr

Zach said...
Pats should have let him score on 1st down and save the TO though.
0:57 in the 4th qtr

Steve said...
Well that play pretty much proves Brian has changed the NFL. Both sides were thinking WP.
0:57 in the 4th qtr

Zach said...
Battle of Wits
0:57 in the 4th qtr

Jon said...
damn it Bradshaw. the superbowl was won.
0:57 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
idiot
1:04 in the 4th qtr

Joshua Northey said...
That was my favorite NFL moment all time.
1:04 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
Have to let them score is right. Big mistake. And the Giants need to take the knee if they do.
1:04 in the 4th qtr

Jon said...
I hope Coughlin isn't that dumb.
1:09 in the 4th qtr

James said...
They have to let them score!
1:15 in the 4th qtr

Ian S said...
Get the ball in the middle of the field before you kick the field goal
2:00 in the 4th qtr

chris said...
should NE have let bradshaw score? will have to check the math on that after
2:00 in the 4th qtr

Jason said...
Let them score, get the ball back now.
2:00 in the 4th qtr

Ian S said...
Here we are... the mythical 'field goal range'
2:52 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
Need to work the clock, but need to get closer for the kick.
3:34 in the 4th qtr

Jon said...
run run run
3:34 in the 4th qtr

Steven said...
Doesn't the clock usually start on the snap?
3:39 in the 4th qtr

Jason said...
Good point Jon, Giants need to work this clock.
3:46 in the 4th qtr

Giles said...
Wow, what a catch!
3:46 in the 4th qtr

Joshua Northey said...
That was quite a catch.
3:46 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
That's a catch. No doubt. I think they were in 4-down territory from the get-go with only 1 timeout.
3:46 in the 4th qtr

Jon said...
holy...now don't score too fast, all we need is a field goal
3:46 in the 4th qtr

Jason said...
That was sick
3:46 in the 4th qtr

Walker said...
Good news for the Giants: they're in 4 down territory.
3:46 in the 4th qtr

Jon said...
tyree
3:46 in the 4th qtr

Joshua Northey said...
Collinsworth has been good tonight, but he just refuses to say anything bad about Brady even when he makes bad throws.
3:46 in the 4th qtr

Wes Welker said...
Hey Tom. I'm only 5 feet tall.
3:46 in the 4th qtr

Walker said...
Now I want more reverse.
7:22 in the 4th qtr

Steve said...
Josh, most refs are going to call that PI. That's just the convention, its like holds when a guy spins and blocks in the back (if the guy flops). I agree that today the bar for contact has been set very high but in week 9 that would have been PI (low standard week) and in most weeks too.
7:48 in the 4th qtr

KenR said...
It looks like Brady is hurt. He's really been off on longer throws since that hit.
8:35 in the 4th qtr

Joshua Northey said...
I think it is hard to call that PI when the DB gets such strong contact on the ball. If it had hit the receiver in the hands it would be different.
8:35 in the 4th qtr

Steven said...
If the Giants win, the punter might be the MVP
9:19 in the 4th qtr

Walker said...
This super bowl does not have enough safeties.
9:19 in the 4th qtr

Steve said...
Was that the most important penalty/non-call in Super Bowl history? Between the false start and the no-PI it looks like a whopping .2 WP
9:24 in the 4th qtr

Steven said...
Does the WP model include time-outs?
9:35 in the 4th qtr

Jason said...
Brian, Is there a way to measure the value of a timeout?
9:35 in the 4th qtr

Pickle said...
Bad clock management, Giants.
9:35 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
Costly timeout.
9:35 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
Eli has threaded some needles tonight.
11:38 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
Ferris commercial beats Seinfeld for best of the game.
13:18 in the 4th qtr

Joshua Northey said...
That ball was really under-thrown and a big rainbow. 10 yards further down the field and that is a TD.
13:23 in the 4th qtr

Giles said...
There's the Matthew Broderick commercial. My wife can stop paying attention now :)
13:23 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
54-yd arm punt.
14:17 in the 4th qtr

Steven said...
Pickle: I think so. I haven't seen the figures in a while, but I seem to remember that two-point attempts are converted pretty close to half of the time. So there doesn't have to be much more of a difference between 2 and 1 than between 1 and 0 for it to be worthwhile.
14:17 in the 4th qtr

Giles said...
Now things might get interesting.
15:00 in the 4th qtr

Pickle said...
Immaterial now, but a giants touchdown here would warrant a two point conversion, right?
0:35 in the 3rd qtr

Walker said...
As soon as I compliment the Giants' running, they decide to be really bad at it.
0:35 in the 3rd qtr

Giles said...
Great stop
1:53 in the 3rd qtr

Walker said...
Giants getting the job done on the ground. They may come out with a positive WPA from their running game.
3:45 in the 3rd qtr

Brian said...
Take a deep shot here. Use 4th down to get the 5 inches if needed.
12:27 in the 3rd qtr

Giles said...
Quick, someone take the remote away from Dungy before he starts that rewind/forward/rewind thing...oh dear too late.


Bob said...
Can anyone tell me why the clock was running before the Pats snapped the ball coming back from the 2-minute warning? I've seen it happen throughout the season where the clock seems to run in situations like that, but why?


Brian said...
I think I'd take the extra down there instead of the 3 extra yds. Even with 18 sec left. You can run 3 plays easy w/ 2 timeouts.
0:15 in the 2nd qtr

Giles said...
Yeah it is definitely not going to be the half time score I was expecting.
0:29 in the 2nd qtr

Brian said...
First half is flying by. Only about an hour in real time. Much lower scoring than anyone would anticipate.
0:29 in the 2nd qtr

Steven said...
Seen on Twitter: "I know Nike does some crazy stuff, but the jerseys LSU and Alabama are wearing tonight are way out there."
2:00 in the 2nd qtr

Walker said...
I am not ashamed to admit that I desperately want another safety.
4:03 in the 2nd qtr

Steven said...
If you could guarantee that a punt from the 45 would go out at the four, it would be the right call more often than it is.
4:03 in the 2nd qtr

Walker said...
Ocho wasn't cut long ago? I did not know that.
9:12 in the 2nd qtr

GR Math Teacher said...
Thanks, graph is working again!
9:55 in the 2nd qtr

Pickle said...
Cowardice, thy name is Coughlin.
10:00 in the 2nd qtr

Walker said...
Does nobody know not to put 12 guys in? What's the deal? This is one of those penalties that should never occur if the coaches are paying attention, and both sides can't wait to do it.
11:24 in the 2nd qtr

Walker said...
I'd have thought Belichick would go for it there. Did someone replace him with a scowling android? A clone in a filthy hoodie? What's going on?
13:48 in the 2nd qtr

Brian said...
If the graph isn't updating, it's likely because you're using IE and it's loading a cached version. Clear your cache and it will update.
13:48 in the 2nd qtr

Brian said...
Pats might look back at that 4th and 4 and wish they had it back.
13:48 in the 2nd qtr

GR Math Teacher said...
The graph isn't staying current.
13:48 in the 2nd qtr

Joshua Northey said...
Not that much difference, even in a high scoring game 9 pts is a big lead with only three quarters left (statistically speaking). 3 to 1 for the giants seems right to me.
3:18 in the 1st qtr

Steven said...
I assume we're expecting a high-scoring game here, so we assume the win probabilities should be closer to 50/50 than the model gives us, right?
3:24 in the 1st qtr

Jason said...
Giants should on side kick right here.
3:24 in the 1st qtr

Walker said...
Someone should tell the Pats that they'll need to learn to play defense if they want to win, right after telling them that you can only put 11 guys in at one time.
3:24 in the 1st qtr

Giles said...
What a missed opportunity.
4:23 in the 1st qtr

Walker said...
Wow. That call of 12 on the field is simply inexcusable. What the hell is wrong with Belichick today?
4:23 in the 1st qtr

Budman said...
I wonder how many prop bettors had a safety as first score of game... 800:1
6:13 in the 1st qtr

Walker said...
Is it just me, or are safeties immensely entertaining?
8:05 in the 1st qtr

Brian said...
That's great coverage/poor blocking on the free kick. They usually get out close to the 40.
8:52 in the 1st qtr

Brian said...
That is so rare. A 2-pt score difference at this point in a game just doesn't happen. The model hates 2 and 5 -point differences.
8:52 in the 1st qtr

Steven said...
Offensive linesmen are generally only noticed on individual plays when they screw up.
9:22 in the 1st qtr

Steven said...
I didn't see the Puppy Bowl, but I saw the last fifteen minutes of Manchester United at Chelsea. If you get Fox Soccer, I recommend watching/recording the rerun tonight.
11:11 in the 1st qtr

Budman said...
Eli looks sharp and ready.
11:49 in the 1st qtr

Giles said...
Hey Brian, yes I see the graph now. I guess I was just too early. Here's to a good game. After today's Puppy Bowl this has a lot to live up to.
13:08 in the 1st qtr

Brian said...
This is the right place.
14:17 in the 1st qtr

Giles said...
I can't click on the game so I guessed the url. Is this the right place?






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