In-Game Win Probability



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Jeff said...
Brian--I know coaches use a chart for 2pt conversion--but typically, they never reference it until the 4th quarter. But I seem to remember that 2pt conversions should be attempted more often anyways. Would be curious to see how a 2pt conversion impacts WP in a situation similar to this game where it was late in the 3rd quarter, and a successful 2 pt attempt would cut the margin to 16. Noticed that the WP virtually didn't change with the extra point. Wonder if it would have been worth going for 2--if the WP would have been worth the risk. I suppose since it is in a "general" sense, it probably was slightly better. Wonder if the game situation and time remaining would have made it materially better.

Jeff said...
In other words, would the WPA change markedly trying to be down 2 scores at that point versus being down 17? Cause kicking the extra point didn't change the WPA at all, for the most part.
15:00 in the 4th qtr

Jeff said...
Should the Broncos have gone for 2 there? I know it's early, but seems like that's the better WPA play.
1:08 in the 3rd qtr

Brian said...
Big mistake by DEN punting here.
5:18 in the 2nd qtr