In-Game Win Probability



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Josh said...
I am quite surprised that RG3 has higher WPA and EPA than Morris. Is this a case where everyone's impressions were wrong, or a case where the model is a bit off?

Jeff said...
I guess it's all a moot point when they score on 3rd down anyway. Intuition was to let them score on 1st down. Even if they stopped them, 20-30 seconds left. And if Skins were smart, go for it on 4th down leaving them on 1 yard line with less than 20 secs needing a FG to tie. Prefer the time.

Jeff said...
Interesting trade-off there. Let them score and leave 2:30 needing a TD and FG? Or hold to 3 but need TD with probably 20-25 seconds.
2:35 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
Risky throw on that TD.
5:50 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
Nice block by Garcon on the TD.
3:51 in the 3rd qtr

Brian said...
Paulsen's catch was amazing.
7:07 in the 2nd qtr