In-Game Win Probability

Note: During the pre-season the WP graphs will undergo development and testing. Real-time graphs will return for the regular season.


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James said...
Alessio, Peyton had two deep passes all game (5%) compared to his season average of 20%. Something was definitely wrong - I talked about it some in the Atl-Sea game comments.


Brian said...
Me too. The go-ahead TD in the 4th quarter must be why.


Jonathan said...
I'm actually surprised that Peyton had a positive WPA and EPA.


Shifty said...
@Alessio I think part of the reason Peyton didn't go deep was Ed Reed. Didn't put up any numbers, but his presence in the backfield likely had something to do w/ Manning not wanting to go deep. Even if a player doesn't touch the ball, his presence can be felt if teams have to waste resources dealing with him (in this case they wasted passing variability).


Alessio said...
As a Peyton Manning fan, this game hurt way more than a playoff loss normally does. There was something painful about it all the way through. Peyton wasn't himself. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think he attempted a deep pass all day. All we saw was rinky-dink short pass, with a mediocre completion percentage, interspersed with a mediocre running game. The deep bomb was completely missing (on the Denver side). And the decisions to get off the field with 31 and 36 seconds left in the halves... my wife and I were jumping up and down screaming both times. You have Peyton Freaking Manning throwing for you, and all you need is a field goal in the thin Denver air... and you just say "screw it!" I know it sounds crazy, but it's like they didn't even care. Alessio


Tyson said...
*I realize that the decisive INT was thrown late in the first OT. Also, sorry for not figuring out how to break my lengthy post into paragraphs.


Tyson said...
First off, Ive only recently been following this site, but want to say that it is AMAZING! Brian's analysis, explanations, and choices of topics to explore and mathematically analyze are great. (His snarky wit when people post wrongheaded stuff is funny to me as well.) Just a huge thank you. If what follows reflects that I don't grasp this analytics movement fully yet, please judge gently as I have read many but not all of the older articles. Now, regarding this game, it was great, but I could not help thinking about John Fox's conservatism a lot during the second half and overtime. While I wasn't counting, I noticed a great many second half and OT Denver 2nd and 1 or 2nd and 2 situations in which they ran the negative EPA style "dive up the middle" play which must not have helped their WP at all. Seemed never to try to go deep with those, and then they'd follow it up with another unsuccessful similar play call on 3rd down and short. Duh. Then it was almost like Dan Dierdorf and John Fox were mind melded about definitely not going for it on 4th down. "You can't strand your defense..." without considering that they might convert and then go on to win. Now if you had Dan Orlovsky throwing against the '85 Bears or '00 Ravens or something that might make sense, but I'd be surprised if Brian's release of coach WPA sacrificed doesn't show Fox costing a lot: they have one of the top 5 all time QBs and the passing game was good enough on 1st down to get 8 or 9 yards. I of course realize that your strategy in those situations has to also take into consideration the defensive alignment, but if they rarely converted those boring run calls, how many of them could have been in cover 2 or nickel situations anyway. Peyton is pretty good even against those coverage schemes, even in the cold, and when not having his best game. In the end, Peyton throwing that pick in 2OT probably will be interpreted by "by the book" coaches as proving that they should not have taken those chances I'm talking about, but I'll just bet your hi tech stats bear me out on this. Sad that the end result will probably "prove" this type of analysis wrong. Lastly I wondered how often a team has run 2 kicks back for TDs and lost. Probably it has happened but not too often I think. thanks again for any thoughts about these points and for the site in general....makes me watch football in a whole new way and I appreciate that. Tyson


Keith said...
Great game and Peyton adds to the legacy (of failing with great playoff seeding). Would be interested in a couple analyses after the final graph, Brian. First, probability of a scoring drive from 20 with 0:36 at end of a half and two timeouts, and also 0:31 and two TOs (first and second half Denver kneeldowns). Second analysis would be probability of success of a pass play on 3rd and 9 towards end of regulation, under 2:00 left when BAL was out of TOs. I think that would have been for the win, and Broncos ran the ball? These are the things that Lovie Smith used to do that mad me support his firing!


Brian said...
Still waiting for the NFL to release the final gamebook to do the final graph and advanced boxscore...


Flash said...
Just an amazing game, pleasure to watch it.


Brian said...
Joe Flacco just earned himself a fatter paycheck over the next few yrs.


Brian said...
I was literally shaking too hard to text on my phone for a couple minutes. How crazy are we as fans to care so much that our hands tremble?


Brian said...
Yayyyyy! What an upset. What a comeback.


Jonathan said...
I really don't even understand centering the ball, or how that's an advantage at all. Aren't kickers more used to kicking from the hashmarks?


Flash said...
How's the blood pressure Brian?
14:07 in

Brian said...
Playing for the FG strikes me of very Jason Garrett like.
14:07 in

Brian said...
Graph is screwed. Ignore.
15:00 in

Jonathan said...
This has not been Peyton's best game at all.
15:00 in

Brian said...
Too bad the games are overlapping. Changing direction will help BAL. Didn't realize kickers could practice FGs on the field between periods, but Tucker just was.
15:00 in

Jonathan said...
I believe so. It's just like regulation.
0:47 in OT

Brian said...
Do they change sides when the 2nd OT period starts?
0:51 in OT

Jonathan said...
If we go into a 2OT, this could end up being one of the best playoff games in history. Or at least recent history. Albeit a really awful game for diehard CSI fans.
3:18 in OT

Brian said...
If we go into the 2nd OT period, I have no idea what the graph will do. I never coded for that.
3:47 in OT

Jonathan said...
I expect Harbaugh to continue with his 1980's ground n pound strategy. Playoff overtime -------> more risk aversion.
3:47 in OT

Jonathan said...
Good grief I'm nervous and I don't even care about these teams much.
5:22 in OT

Brian said...
BAL should go into its 2 min offense. I don't see the running game doing anything but putting them in 3rd and longs.
5:22 in OT

Jonathan said...
Does the "rush the snap so they don't review it" trick ever work?" I can see doing it if the opposing coach is trying to make a decision. But who are you trying to fool by rushing the replay booth? They have nothing to lose by saying "eff it. Let's just review to make sure."
6:04 in OT

Anonymous said...
Didn't Denver legalize using pot? I think that explains a lot.
10:22 in OT

Brian said...
Maybe the wind factored into Fox's thinking there at the end of regulation. They would have had to attempt their FG into a pretty stiff breeze, plus the temp would hurt too.
15:00 in OT

Steve said...
Baltimore went for that 4th down and didn't get it so having an analytics group probably didn't help. But I think Denver's lack of an analytics group really hurt. (And not bribing the refs.)
15:00 in OT

Sunrise089 said...
I'm not Brian, Fox is hyper-conservative.
0:31 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
You called it Evan. It's all about the wind. /break/ Probably around 4%, maybe a little more.
0:31 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
Really surprised DEN took a knee with 2 TOs.
0:31 in the 4th qtr

Evan said...
Dierdorf hasn't figured out that you can put the kickoff out the back of the north end zone.
0:31 in the 4th qtr

Evan said...
What % does the model give Denver of converting a FG if Baltimore had made the 2?
0:31 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
oh well
0:31 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
Go for the fake
0:31 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
GO FOR 2.
1:05 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
BAL, if they score, should seriously consider going for 2 and avoid OT. I can't see their defense surviving in its current state.
1:15 in the 4th qtr

Steve said...
I think they're going to call this game the "Tuck Rule Game II."
0:59 in the 3rd qtr

Evan said...
All but one of the BAL kickoffs have been toward the south end zone, which is upwind and typically the more difficult end zone to kick toward according to a commenter in the field goal article. TB on the only downwind kickoff (end of 1st half).
3:18 in the 3rd qtr

Flash said...
How much have the lack of touchbacks hurt BAL?!
9:45 in the 3rd qtr

Brian said...
The graph is so telling. DEN (except for the initial punt return) methodically moves the ball play after play. BAL is surviving on a few huge plays.






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