In-Game Win Probability

Note: During the pre-season the WP graphs will undergo development and testing. Real-time graphs will return for the regular season.


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Brian said...
jjb-Regrettably, I don't have ST stats on here (yet). A lot of the WPA belongs to K Matt Bryant and his long GW FG.


jjb said...
So what's up here? The WPA graph for the game says SEA was getting their butts whupped for 59:30 out of 60:00 minutes (including the final 00:01) but the team and individual EPA/WPA stats all say SEA blew ATL off the field.


Jonathan said...
Prevent defense vs. stop playing once you barely get into FG range. Classic. Absolutely classic.


Brian said...
EI is just the total vertical travel of the WP path. The BAL-DEN game was huge, but this game was a snoozer until the 4th qtr.


Jay said...
I can never remember what actually goes into the Excitement Index, but I have to believe this game and the Broncos-Ravens game have to be way up there.


Tyson said...
Well, is there a metric for excitement index for the weekend? Pretty high I'd say...


Joshua said...
HOLY CRAP


General-Specific said...
Brian- You really need to run an expanded graph with the last 15 or so plays spaced out more so it is easier to see the wild swings.


John said...
what the hell just happened?
0:08 in the 4th qtr

James said...
What just happened?
0:08 in the 4th qtr

Tyson said...
The "prevent ya from winnin'" defense. and that will a) teach Pete Carroll a thing or two about icing the kicker and b) prevent us from having a laborious convo about Matt Ryan being a good QB who is a bad playoff QB.
0:08 in the 4th qtr

problem said...
No one in their right mind could imagine the Falcons' chances were HURT by the first pass that put them at midfield on that last drive. But this graph said so.
0:08 in the 4th qtr

General-Specific said...
I don't understand the defense SEA was playing there.
0:13 in the 4th qtr

Jay said...
They called the timeout there? Figured they'd clock it.
0:13 in the 4th qtr

James said...
Wow.
0:19 in the 4th qtr

Evan said...
Gone for 2 and converted, obviously.
0:19 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
Wow.
0:25 in the 4th qtr

Evan said...
This is almost the exact situation that Denver would've been in yesterday had Baltimore gone for 2 at the end of regulation as Brian suggested.
0:25 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
You'd want the touchback there. No time comes off the clock.
0:31 in the 4th qtr

Chris said...
Still a lot of time left. If they get a kickoff past the 30, they still have a shot.
0:31 in the 4th qtr

Karl said...
Wow, wow, wow
0:34 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
ATL has a shot here. Just need a FG and they have their TOs.
0:34 in the 4th qtr

Jay said...
Oh my. My roommate must be sick right about now. He's a Green Bay/ Atlanta fan.
0:34 in the 4th qtr

General-Specific said...
Brian BIllick is talking about FG...even if it is just to dismiss it, shoot me now.
0:34 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
Billick is an IDIOT! a FG?
0:44 in the 4th qtr

Karl said...
James... it´s not about stats here. The game that were lost, were super ugly, the wins were extreme good (like all those perfect IND-DEN games). Stats are much, but not everything. Anyway, i sleep well, b/c i know Peyton busts in PO´s and i bet on it :-) Karl, Germany
1:49 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
Somebody I know wrote that this game would wind up being close and would come down to a couple high-leverage plays in the end. Total BS narrative prediction, but happens to be coming true.
2:00 in the 4th qtr

James said...
Karl, Peyton in regular season: 7.6 YPA, 5.5 TD%, 2.7 INT%. Peyton in post-season: 7.5 YPA, 4.2 TD%, 2.8 INT%.
2:00 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
But had they converted...
2:00 in the 4th qtr

Jay said...
But again, that's hindsight. I'm sure they were the correct calls statistically, just bad playcalling and time management as someone mentioned previously.
2:55 in the 4th qtr

Jay said...
Hindsight being 20/20, the two fieldgoals that Seattle passed up in favor of a 4th and short attempt and the end of the 1st half are looking pretty nice right now...
3:00 in the 4th qtr

General-Specific said...
4 down territory. Play like it.
3:00 in the 4th qtr

Tyson said...
Classic...it is in a coach's DNA to run up the middle on 2nd and 1! Even converting doesn't really help them.
6:35 in the 4th qtr

Karl said...
@ General-Specific I know all that... But OTOH, i SAW all this Peyton meltdowns. This isn´t stats. He melts under playoff pressure, year-in-year-out. Same as with Favre was, and Cunningham. I can live with the critics, b/c i know what i see. :-) Karl, Germany
7:14 in the 4th qtr

Tyson said...
Karl, I think you were asking for the 2pc on a previous TD to the one I'm talking about when there was a review. Yes you were right. I think the argument for the 2pc is stronger when you are only 1 yard away rather than on the stripe at the 2, yes? Regardless, we are singing from the same hymnal.
8:57 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
I'm just happy this has turned into a game.
8:57 in the 4th qtr

General-Specific said...
Karl- Your idea that there is such a thing as a "playoff QB" betrays a lot of ignorance about statistics and sample sizes o your part.
8:57 in the 4th qtr

Karl said...
Tyson... and i was the first to call out for it. Were did you have been Brian? :-)
9:07 in the 4th qtr

Karl said...
Tyson... and i was the first to call out for it. Were did you have been Brian? :-)
9:07 in the 4th qtr

Tyson said...
Now that play where they could have gone for 2 from the 1 yard line due to Sherman jumping offsides sure seems to loom large. These things tend to rear their ugly heads later...
9:13 in the 4th qtr

Karl said...
Peyton was, is and always will be an ordinary PO-QB. He lost many, many games as big favourite. Yesterday, even 2 return TDS didn´t save him. Just look at his numbers, even in his SB-Year, the D had to help out big time to cover his bad games (esp. vs. BAL) Karl, Germany
9:13 in the 4th qtr

Chris said...
Oh good lord Ive been down this road before.
9:42 in the 4th qtr

Tyson said...
While that was a nice pick by Earl Thomas, I couldn't help but notice that Trufant was holding back the receiver preventing him from getting toward the ball. I am sensitive to that because as a redskin fan, the same thing happened on Thomas' pick last week. I believe it was Browner holding and grabbing on last week's play rather than Trufant but is that not interference on the CB in anyone else's mind? Or does the pick by another DB cancel out that penalty? Yeah, they're showing that replay just now....
10:34 in the 4th qtr

Waterloo said...
Jay, John Fox is horrifically conservative, so the calls were likely Manning independent.
10:57 in the 4th qtr

James said...
That was a terrible idea, Ryan.
11:44 in the 4th qtr

Jay said...
Karl, I have a hard time imagining that John Fox would be so hyper-conservative throughout the game (particularly the end of the first half... wow) if there wasn't SOMETHING up with Peyton. Also, he may have thrown the interception that effectively ended the game, but his defense failed him by allowing the game to get to that point.
13:01 in the 4th qtr

James said...
Karl, supposedly Manning was wearing the gloves because he was having trouble gripping the ball in the extreme cold as a result of his nerve damage from the neck surgeries. Do you have any evidence for nervous playoff Peyton? Previously his deep% in the playoffs was 11%, 19%, 26%, 19%, 22%. This was clearly an aberration.
13:01 in the 4th qtr

Karl said...
@ Brian... How can you lose arm strengh over night? No, no, i think we just saw nervous playoff Peyton... again, as always Karl, Germany
15:00 in the 4th qtr

Alessio said...
I thought they should have gone for two. As it is, three Seahawks TD's would put them ahead. With the 2-pointer that would be a tie.
15:00 in the 4th qtr

Tyson said...
Anyone else think both OLs are doing pretty well? Atlanta runs effectively from the opening kick. Seattle has had several plays when Wilson has had gobs of time to throw. WIth the penalty should the falcons go for 2? get up by 21? Recall this is against pete carroll...
2:11 in the 3rd qtr

Tyson said...
Jay, Mostly unimaginative play calling. Good defense in stopping them on 3rd and 4th and short. The one before the half was bad time management.
9:47 in the 3rd qtr

Jay said...
Unfortunately I'm at work, so I can't watch the game. I see that Seattle has been VERY close a couple of times now. Is it bad offense or good defense that's held them scoreless?
14:23 in the 3rd qtr

Brian said...
James-I think there's something to that. Manning didn't appear to have any arm strength yesterday. I think that factored into Fox's conservative decisions before half and before the end of regulation.


James said...
Looking at last night's game, during the regular season 20% of Peyton's passes were classified as 'deep', but last night it was only 5% (2 of his 43 attempts). I don't think the Ravens were playing back because they had tight coverage on all the underneath throws, but I'm not sure. Was it the cold/Peyton's grip?


James said...
He didn't even have his best RB in Lynch on the field...
1:01 in the 2nd qtr

Ken r said...
Sure he went for it, but he has one of the 2 best running QB's in the league, a guy who's smart and has a great arm and they run one of the most un-imaginative plays in the play book. I'm still shaking my head.
4:16 in the 2nd qtr

Karl said...
Now with replay, GO FOR TWO. If one would do it, Mike Smith is the guy.
4:16 in the 2nd qtr

Karl said...
go for two... :-)
4:16 in the 2nd qtr

Brian said...
Did not expect this kind of game.
4:16 in the 2nd qtr

Brian said...
True.
5:28 in the 2nd qtr

Karl said...
at least he tried, even though the wrong play. Hats up for that. Karl, Germany
5:33 in the 2nd qtr

Brian said...
Stop running into brick walls on 4th and short! Take advantage of the fact the defense has 9 men in the box.
5:33 in the 2nd qtr





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