In-Game Win Probability


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JP Stormcrow said...
I do wonder if there is any chance that the NFL might now add a situational time/down-based rule to negate the (admittedly very small) advantage to be gained from holding in the end zone on an intentional safety (similar to what they did with the Holy Roller rule)? Maybe only in effect offensive penalties in the end zone on 4th downs after the two-minute warning on plays that result in safeties. Penalty should probably be time-based: clock back to the time of infraction to negate any advantage, or back to start of the play to make it punitive. Or it could be the usual yardage but enforced on the safety free kick. Clearly not the most pressing issue, but I suspect it will at least be considered.


Brian said...
Note that J.Jones' kickoff return TD is not included in his WPA/EPA.


Jonathan said...
I have to imagine a fair catch at the 20 yard line would have put the Ravens at borderline victory formation odds. It's nigh well impossible to score a TD on an NFL team on the last play unless your QB can reach the end zone on a throw. Anyway, the time waster on the safety was worth it, it was the correct call by Baltimore. Also a good call to have their guys hold everyone. No problem with the non-call on 4th & goal. Both guys fouled each other a little bit.


Jacob said...
Probably not much data out there, but what might the odds have been on a SF fair catch kick at :04 instead of a punt return or hail-mary?


Mike said...
if your gonna call pass inteference all game, why cop out at the end,, poor officiated superbowl, that what I will remember.


Brian said...
That's actually pretty funny. I just wish God would pay more attention to the advertisers and make better commercials.


Tepid coffee said...
Btw Brian you also need to update the model to account for the team God is with. I know a good priest if that's helpful.


John said...
nicholas: they could've just fair caught it even


Tepid coffee said...
Holding in EZ or other offensive penalty is a safety by rule. See last years Super Bowl with T Brady intentional grounding from EZ. Also happened to Steelers vs. Cardinals a few years back.


Jay said...
Nick: Valid point. I tend to forget that they don't put time back on the clock for penalties.


Michael said...
If holding in the EZ were a safety it would be pretty obvious to do it all the time based on expected points, wouldn't it? I thought it's half the distance to the goal instead.


nicholas said...
thought: would SF have been better of running straight(ish) for the sideline, giving CK time for a Hail Mary maybe?


Ron said...
Makes up for weird halftime show, lame commercials, and blackout.


Ron said...
What a great game.


Nick said...
why are you complaining about holding in the end zone? the same two points are put on the board. The same time comes off the clock. The same punt occurs from the same spot on the field.


Steve said...
Anyone who isn't a Ravens fan should look up the Ty Law rule. For Ravens fans, don't let it ruin the fun.


AndrewC said...
Good prediction Walker!


Walker said...
As I predicted, Coach Harbaugh led his team to victory. Now I'm going to get out there and take in a few French Quarter celebrations.
0:04 in the 4th qtr

Tepid coffee said...
Well, for rooting interests I always root vs. the ravens but at least knowing that stand-up guys like Brian and mike tanier are rooting for them. Enjoy it!
0:04 in the 4th qtr

Karl said...
What a bahhh.... :-(
0:04 in the 4th qtr

Brett said...
Good point, Jack
0:04 in the 4th qtr

Jack said...
Why not hold in the end zone in that situation? To avoid a penalty?
0:04 in the 4th qtr

Jay said...
MASSIVE holding there. Should put at least 3 seconds back on the clock.
0:04 in the 4th qtr

Brett said...
Holding in the EZ results in a safety, right?
0:04 in the 4th qtr

Marc said...
Holding would've just been an earlier safety.
0:04 in the 4th qtr

Karl said...
Holding in the EZ. What a mess by the refs twice. I think NFL is over for me...
0:04 in the 4th qtr

nicholas said...
Jim Harbaugh is a dinosaur: embarrassing that Phil Simms would figure an end of game scenario and he wouldn't!
0:04 in the 4th qtr

simon said...
exciting finish!
0:11 in the 4th qtr

Tepid coffee said...
Bunch of prop bettors just went nuts.
0:11 in the 4th qtr

Jumbo said...
*any..... Great play BAL
0:11 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
Pretty smart if they could get it down to 4 sec. Didn't consider the punter running around like that.
0:11 in the 4th qtr

Steve said...
The refs gave up on the game. No holding in the end zone?
0:11 in the 4th qtr

Adam H said...
Ha, good game.
0:11 in the 4th qtr

brett said...
best call ever
0:11 in the 4th qtr

Evan said...
But eliminates the possibility of a blocked punt.
0:11 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
Simms is right.
0:11 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
Safety lets SF tie with a FG.
0:56 in the 4th qtr

Steve said...
I would take the safety.
1:42 in the 4th qtr

Nick said...
take a safety?
1:42 in the 4th qtr

nicholas said...
now play action would be an impressive call!
1:42 in the 4th qtr

John said...
I'm not so sure...think the hold should've been called
1:42 in the 4th qtr

nicholas said...
not over yet
1:42 in the 4th qtr

Tepid coffee said...
Fifteen seconds for sf to take a shot?
1:42 in the 4th qtr

Steve said...
Imagine if the replacement refs were still here for that blown call. Obama might have issued an executive order.
1:46 in the 4th qtr

Nick said...
That should have been offensive P.I. on Crabtree. But it also should have been a hold on Smith. So good no call
1:46 in the 4th qtr

Walker said...
X, you're probably right about that. That's certainly good enough for the fine folks over at ESPN.
1:46 in the 4th qtr

X said...
I'm pretty sure the statistics will show a significant increase in performance in the playoffs following power outages.
1:46 in the 4th qtr

John said...
and it's done
1:46 in the 4th qtr

ezgoer89 said...
GAME OVER (let them score?!?!?!)
1:55 in the 4th qtr

Walker said...
That was the most costly timeout/penalty yet.
1:55 in the 4th qtr

John said...
it's down to this...
1:55 in the 4th qtr

DOL said...
AndrewC, if that were true you'd see that effect show up in player performance, but player performance isn't affected by anything described as "momentum" (no changes after turnovers ec).
1:55 in the 4th qtr

Walker said...
Or it could just be a timeout.
2:00 in the 4th qtr

Walker said...
That could be the most costly penalty yet.
2:00 in the 4th qtr

ezgoer89 said...
no way this isn't the one yard line
2:00 in the 4th qtr

Ron said...
They need to let them score.
2:00 in the 4th qtr

John said...
they should've used a timeout there...essentially ends up wasting the two-minute warning this way
2:00 in the 4th qtr

John said...
they should've used a timeout there...essentially ends up wasting the two-minute warning this way
2:00 in the 4th qtr

AndrewC said...
Under all that armor are human beings. There is such a thing as the placebo effect. If both teams believe in momentum then it is real. The difference between good and great in the NFL is tiny. If one team believes they are beaten and plays merely 1% less well they can lose the game for themselves. Momentum is morale.
2:39 in the 4th qtr

Marc said...
So should they let them score?
2:47 in the 4th qtr

John said...
what a game.
2:47 in the 4th qtr

Mike said...
Ray Lewis looks pretty slow...
3:25 in the 4th qtr

Karl said...
"So what are the stats on how many 1% games according to live stats get turned around?" Wayyyy more than one percent. Something like 300% above. No kidding here...
3:40 in the 4th qtr

Evan said...
Michael, I think someone said it was about 1.5-2%. Brian has said the model breaks down a bit at the extremes.
3:40 in the 4th qtr

Karl said...
scripted since 2001
4:19 in the 4th qtr

Michael said...
So what are the stats on how many 1% games according to live stats get turned around?
4:19 in the 4th qtr

Marc said...
At least it isn't going to come down to Akers.
4:19 in the 4th qtr

Marc said...
No, the next 4th down will be.
4:19 in the 4th qtr

John said...
should've gone for the fake again. no one would've seen it coming.
4:19 in the 4th qtr

Adam H said...
Is this the 4th down we all talk about tomorrow?
4:23 in the 4th qtr

Karl said...
Time to shank one
4:32 in the 4th qtr

John said...
Appreciate the throw, not another predictable down-the-middle run bound to be stuffed.
7:14 in the 4th qtr

Walker said...
Gutsy call on 3rd and 0.5... I like it.
7:14 in the 4th qtr

Ron said...
What a catch!
7:57 in the 4th qtr

Nick said...
If the 49ers win I blame that guy that had to sit in the exact spot on the couch the last time the 49ers won the Super Bowl.
7:57 in the 4th qtr

Steve said...
Refs swallow the whistle UNTIL the 4th quarter. Isn't it supposed to be the opposite?
7:57 in the 4th qtr

ezgoer89 said...
it sure would be nice if there was just a touch of defense. NFL is starting to look like college
8:30 in the 4th qtr

Jay said...
John: I would expect nothing less after this season's 49ers playoff games.
9:57 in the 4th qtr

Giles said...
Arguments for momentum will go back and forth but damn this game got exciting
9:57 in the 4th qtr

John said...
and we're in for a wild finish
9:57 in the 4th qtr

Sunrise089 said...
@nathan - I suspect the 49ers are playing harder. I don't believe in forward looking momentum any more than forward looking special teams skills or forward looking fumble recoveries. I don't see why that doesn't mean this particular 30 minute break gave the 49ers time to calm down and get their heads in the game. It helps that SF is the better team, so there's regression too.
12:47 in the 4th qtr

Marc said...
BOLD PREDICTION: Alex Smith kicks game-winning FG.
12:47 in the 4th qtr

Ron said...
If Akers is hurt, who do they turn to?
12:54 in the 4th qtr

Adam H said...
That drive PROVES momentum exists - the ravens are just taking the momentum back! Wait, no, they're kicking a field goal, so the 49ers still have the momentum. Or something like that.
12:54 in the 4th qtr

Nathan said...
I don't buy the irrational momentum argument, but I haven't noticed a distinct change in strategy or anything that could've fixed the niners problems. Why do you guys think that their play has improved since the power outage?
14:02 in the 4th qtr

Ron said...
Leon Sandcastle could have a 10.0 season WPA. That kid could be a high first rounder.
15:00 in the 4th qtr

Michael said...
Isn't this drive by the Ravens proof enough that momentum is a hoax?
15:00 in the 4th qtr

Jay said...
I understand that the delay broke up the flow of the game, but using it as a reference point for the "swing in momentum" seems a little on the super ridiculous side.
1:30 in the 3rd qtr

Ron said...
I thought you couldn't lead with the head like that!
3:10 in the 3rd qtr

Jim Harbaugh said...
SUCKERS!!!
3:10 in the 3rd qtr

Ron said...
That's a questionable call. Now they should go for it.
3:25 in the 3rd qtr

Walker said...
This is not the part of the game where you want to get penalized.
3:25 in the 3rd qtr

Ron said...
Am I the only one who thinks it looks like Ray Rice took a bath in kool-aid, judging by his jersey.
3:25 in the 3rd qtr

Nick said...
Brian, what should my counter-argument be to the whole "momentum" shift after the lights went out.
4:05 in the 3rd qtr

Marc said...
Did that announcer just say "the 49ers have a lot to do with this" BUT it's mostly the power outage?
4:09 in the 3rd qtr

Brendan Scolari said...
Brian- Your thoughts on not going for two on either of the last two possessions?
4:09 in the 3rd qtr

Ron said...
Rice fumbled. He did that once all year.
4:17 in the 3rd qtr

Tepid coffee said...
I know it's voodoo analysis, but stuff like this almost makes one believe in momentum. Crazy.
4:17 in the 3rd qtr

Adam H said...
I've been unimpressed with Jim's coaching. From that botched first play, to the non-two-point-conversion(s), to the undisciplined play. Good thing the god of momentum is bailing him out. OMG the last ten minutes have been ridiculous.
4:59 in the 3rd qtr

Ron said...
They didn't go for two? What?
4:59 in the 3rd qtr

Ron said...
First a 108 yard kickoff return, then a blackout, now a fish singing to a beer bottle? What else will happen this quarter?
4:59 in the 3rd qtr

Marc said...
Frank Gore's sock looked very low there.
4:59 in the 3rd qtr

Jay said...
Wow. Heroic block by Delaney Walker on that play.
4:59 in the 3rd qtr

Karl said...
"But it seems so obvious that it's better to get the risky call in now and then you know where you stand." Of course. Someone should explain it to the coaches. Brian it´s your job now... You have the connections.
4:59 in the 3rd qtr

Walker said...
CURSE YOU, LIGHTS!!!
4:59 in the 3rd qtr

Eduardo said...
Not always delaying the risky call. With so much time left, Baltimore scoring 2 FGs is a real possibility.
4:59 in the 3rd qtr

Pheel simms said...
Brian, your chart is clearly omitting the momentum change. Can you get that model fixed?
5:47 in the 3rd qtr

Karl said...
The momentum changed after the lights went off. LOL P.S.: Adam you was to fast with THE running gag. :-)
5:47 in the 3rd qtr

Adam H said...
OH THE MOMENTUM!!!! :)
6:03 in the 3rd qtr

Marc said...
But it seems so obvious that it's better to get the risky call in now and then you know where you stand.
6:27 in the 3rd qtr

Karl said...
There is no logic. Just delaying the inevitable "risky" call...
7:10 in the 3rd qtr

Marc said...
I don't understand the logic of going for 2 later rather than sooner.
7:20 in the 3rd qtr

Ron said...
They should've gone for it, I think.
7:20 in the 3rd qtr

Marc said...
Surely they should be going for 2 there?
7:20 in the 3rd qtr

Tim said...
The more you know. Thanks Karl.
7:28 in the 3rd qtr

Brian said...
That TO might be very costly.
7:53 in the 3rd qtr

Karl said...
the clock is running when put in play (after OoB/inc.)outside the TMW and the last 5 mins in the 4th Qtr.
7:53 in the 3rd qtr

Tim said...
Kap ran out of bounds twice and the clock ran, is nobody else seeing the clock continue to run? Is it an NBC thing?
7:53 in the 3rd qtr

Walker said...
Yeah, I'm about 82% sure it's him.
8:39 in the 3rd qtr

Ron said...
To Walker: it sure looks like him.
9:16 in the 3rd qtr

Tim said...
Why is the clock running??
9:55 in the 3rd qtr

Walker said...
That's Stevie Wonder.
10:26 in the 3rd qtr

Ron said...
Who is the voodoo guy in the Bud Light commercial?
10:26 in the 3rd qtr

Walker said...
Well, at least we had one instance of aggressiveness on 4th down.
10:26 in the 3rd qtr

Karl said...
So that was all they had in the playbook when having 36 mins to prepare for a 3rd down and then punt for a touchback??
12:10 in the 3rd qtr

Ron said...
Wait, the clock ran 6 seconds went he power was out?
13:22 in the 3rd qtr

Ron said...
Gee, Entergy is worse than PEPCO.
13:22 in the 3rd qtr

Tim said...
13:28 in the 3rd qtrTim
13:28 in the 3rd qtr

Jay said...
"Awaiting commentary that this advantage 49ers because they dealt with this last season." Good call Evan...
13:28 in the 3rd qtr

Brian said...
Cower's analysis makes sense to me. BAL can still be aggressive, but milk the clock. SF needs to play fast.
13:28 in the 3rd qtr

Walker said...
Whatever team loses will cite the breaking of momentum caused by this. Because nothing is worse for your chances of winning than a 15 minute break during the game.
13:28 in the 3rd qtr

Sunrise089 said...
Who is the full-in commentator?
13:28 in the 3rd qtr

John said...
the 49ers will now proceed to come back and win this thing; the power outage was a conspiracy
13:28 in the 3rd qtr

Karl said...
"Call the game. Everybody go home." @ all experts: How is it in football? I only know from baseball that 5 1/2 innings have to be played to have the game official. I guess we are not there yet. OTOH, wouldn´t it be a nice NFL-Stunt to replay the game one week later to generate more money?
13:28 in the 3rd qtr

Ron said...
"Momentum lost?" seriously?
13:28 in the 3rd qtr

Evan said...
Awaiting commentary that this advantage 49ers because they dealt with this last season.
13:28 in the 3rd qtr

Ron said...
If this was in Maryland, the power wouldn't ever come on with PEPCO working.
13:28 in the 3rd qtr

Jay said...
Well this is interesting. And I love how the momentum talk starts up in full force.
13:28 in the 3rd qtr

Tim said...
Is this the superbowl?
13:28 in the 3rd qtr

Ron said...
Hey! Subway is stateist-they charge more for sandwiches in Alaska and Hawai'i!
13:28 in the 3rd qtr

Brian said...
Call the game. Everybody go home.
13:28 in the 3rd qtr

Walker said...
If this Super Bowl depends on the people at Entergy being able to do their jobs, we may never get to see the rest of this game.
13:28 in the 3rd qtr

Ron said...
Eerie how half is off, half is on.
13:28 in the 3rd qtr

Karl said...
"Why couldn't that have happened during the half time show?" LOL. :-)
13:28 in the 3rd qtr

Evan said...
Unusual that the crowd didn't get really quiet when the lights went out.
13:28 in the 3rd qtr

Ron said...
Giles, I agree.
13:28 in the 3rd qtr

Ron said...
Blackout at the 'Dome.
13:28 in the 3rd qtr

Giles said...
Why couldn't that have happened during the half time show?
13:28 in the 3rd qtr

Ron said...
109 yards. Enough said.
13:28 in the 3rd qtr

Evan said...
Well he could have easily hotdogged the end of that return into 15 seconds.
14:11 in the 3rd qtr

Brian said...
BAL scored too fast. >>>I remind myself of those fans in the outfield in 'Major League' who said the HR was too high.
14:49 in the 3rd qtr

Walker said...
11 seconds. Excuse me.
14:49 in the 3rd qtr

Giles said...
I hadn't even finished reading the 3 score comment before it was 4 scores
14:49 in the 3rd qtr

Walker said...
I picked a bad 10 seconds to look away from my tv...
14:49 in the 3rd qtr

Brian said...
BAL starts with the ball, so how many possessions can SF count on? 6 at most? They need at least 3 scores, so can afford very few stops. Jim H. needs to remember that on 4th downs this half.


Jimbo said...
You'd think the niners would hafta run lots of speed option after the half


Les said...
SF isn't playing with any sense of urgency. Last series in first half it looked like they were playing for a FG and not a TD. After the 1st down they should have hustled to get a play off instead of letting time run down. By letting the clock run they pretty much lost the chance to go for the 1st down and forced to go for TD--especially after the lame running play. Were are the running plays for Kap off the read option? In fact were is the read option that killed GB? SF will have to really pick up the defense or they'll be down by 28-6 before they get the ball back.


Ron said...
Brian, you're right, these are pretty lame Super Bowl commercials.


Brian said...
Not available until after the game. ...maybe I'll have time to do that next year.


Ron said...
Where can I find each players' WPA/EPA during the game?


Ron said...
Boomer obviously doesn't use the 4th down calculator.


eric said...
alex and ani - positive energy bracelets. that's all you have to say.


Brian said...
Is it me or are these the lamest SB commercials in years?


Karl said...
"BAL needed a 39% break-even chance on that fake FG by EP. 62% by WP." So we can assume it was the right call since it surprised everyone!? My feeling tells me the call was right right :-)
0:03 in the 2nd qtr

Sambf said...
"Kaepernic better be pretty conservative with the football." #things not to say when down 18
1:12 in the 2nd qtr

Brian said...
BAL needed a 39% break-even chance on that fake FG by EP. 62% by WP.
1:15 in the 2nd qtr

Karl said...
That 4th down call looks even more impressive now
1:45 in the 2nd qtr

Brian said...
Have to admit, Flacco does look different lately. Moving up the pocket instead of spiraling back and to his right.
1:45 in the 2nd qtr

Beautiful Majestic said...
Anyone got data on the 49ers comp % when down, w/ Kaepernick? I bet Ravens to win by 10. I wanna up at the half to 17. Thoughts?
1:58 in the 2nd qtr

Jimbo said...
Thank goodness SOMEBODY went for it on fourth down!
2:19 in the 2nd qtr

Karl said...
Here we go. Do a 4th down deep in opp. field, don´t convert, then still get the ball back in great position. 1+
2:19 in the 2nd qtr

Karl said...
Great call Brian... still have the 49ers inside the 5yL
3:05 in the 2nd qtr

Walker said...
I did not see that coming.
3:17 in the 2nd qtr

Tim said...
Shove a ref and stay in the game? Is there any precedent there?
6:23 in the 2nd qtr

Karl said...
Moss not even trying... Wow
6:55 in the 2nd qtr

zachary said...
i'm seeing -162/132 ingame which is 59/41% and off from brians 83/17 after the ravens' second score. interesting that books would still be that shaded to the 9ners
7:10 in the 2nd qtr

Brian said...
My tv signal is all jacked. Colors are off. Looks like it's supposed to be 3d, with weird blue and red halos.
7:10 in the 2nd qtr

Brian said...
Seems like the SF gameplan is to go hard after Ray Lewis in coverage. Could be a long night for BAL defense.
11:53 in the 2nd qtr

Joshua Perry said...
Bones Jones with the recovery
12:46 in the 2nd qtr

Walker said...
I can't wait to see an analysis of this 4th down decision. My guess is that punting is very slightly better than going for it in terms of WPA.
15:00 in the 2nd qtr

49ers said...
Go 49ers
9:27 in the 1st qtr

Karl said...
Hello... Karl, Germany
10:36 in the 1st qtr

Giles said...
Hello everyone. Lets hope it's a good game. My guess of 35-17 to the 49ers is looking in doubt already
10:36 in the 1st qtr

Walker said...
9ers getting smoked by penalties. First a 20 yard play is taken back, then they have a stop on 3rd down negated. Not a great start.
10:36 in the 1st qtr

Brian said...
9ers looked a little unnerved to start.
12:29 in the 1st qtr

Jay said...
49ers offense doesn't look great right now. Bit rusty. Their defense isn't looking great early either.
13:05 in the 1st qtr





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