In-Game Win Probability

Note: During the pre-season the WP graphs will undergo development and testing. Real-time graphs will return for the regular season.


Create Advanced Stats Boxscore
QBWPAEPASR(%)Cmp%PassYdsSkIntAYPA
J.Flacco0.037.441.254.8362423.7
RBWPAEPASR(%)AttYdsYPCRecRecYds
R.Rice-0.02-2.045.512363.0835
B.Pierce-0.08-3.310.09222.400
V.Leach0.01-0.925.000-312
WR/TEWPAEPASR(%)YPRRecYdsTgtsYPTCR(%)
D.Clark0.044.050.012.4787127.358.3
T.Smith0.178.055.623.0492811.550.0
M.Brown0.044.671.416.3465610.866.7
B.Stokley-0.11-4.420.08.5434103.440.0
J.Jones0.070.850.08.032446.075.0
O Line-WPA-EPASksSk YdsQB HitsTkls LossRunSR
BLT0.110.3192528.6
QBWPAEPASR(%)Cmp%PassYdsSkIntAYPA
P.Manning0.5225.456.364.3462309.9
RBWPAEPASR(%)AttYdsYPCRecRecYds
K.Moreno0.011.758.39283.1337
M.Ball0.01-0.337.58243.000
R.Hillman0.072.366.74153.8227
WR/TEWPAEPASR(%)YPRRecYdsTgtsYPTCR(%)
W.Welker0.176.869.27.4967116.181.8
D.Thomas-0.018.645.532.251611114.645.5
J.Thomas0.277.671.422.05110715.771.4
E.Decker-0.04-1.125.016.023274.628.6
A.Caldwell0.142.9100.028.0128128.0100.0
O Line-WPA-EPASksSk YdsQB HitsTkls LossRunSR
DEN0.284.1143242.9

Defender+WPA+EPATklAsstTFSCPDFFInt
J.Smith0.041.6 601.292110
D.Smith0.041.8 310.743200
T.Suggs0.044.2 421.116000
C.Graham0.020.6 521.501000
H.Ngata0.022.7 221.304000
L.Webb0.021.3 100.212100
E.Dumervil0.021.6 110.372000

Defender+WPA+EPATklAsstTFSCPDFFInt
S.Phillips0.125.7 310.585010
W.Woodyard0.095.3 551.4410100
C.Harris0.083.3 300.502101
D.Ihenacho0.083.5 1111.987300
R.Ayers0.051.3 100.221000
N.Irving0.041.6 310.583000
D.Wolfe0.043.3 310.874000
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Greg said...
Football Outsiders did their DYAR analysis. This game was incredibly high, but not up there with the best. Reasons: 6 failed third downs with less than 6 yards needed for the first Relatively low cmp % at 64% 7 punts No opponent ability factored in yet because not enough data, but unless the Ravens end up being the greatest defense ever this game will be monumental for the record, but not among the best/most efficient ever.


Bob said...
Agree with Bob - would love to see how Manning's performance ranks historically. Have to assume its up there.


Bob said...
25.4. My bad!


Bob said...
25.6 EPA. I wonder historically since 2000 where that ranks for a single game?


Brian said...
Usually I can have it done as soon as the official stats are published a few minutes after the game. I had to recode a few things for the new season and couldn't get a chance to get it done until late Fri.


Ian said...
Why doesn't the advanced box score table show up under the WP graph faster?


sunrise089 said...
It seems very anti-Fox, but I really hope Denver throws deep over and over to give Manning a shot at the all-time TD record.
4:06 in the 4th qtr

sunrise089 said...
Baltimore is giving Fox a conservative run for his money with the field goal + regular kick.
5:29 in the 4th qtr

James said...
Good to know John Fox is continuing his excessively conservative nature.
6:15 in the 4th qtr

James said...
Hey, is this working now? Football is back!!
14:05 in the 4th qtr

sunrise089 said...
Congrats on the NBC connection if you're reading this Brian. Is there a specific mention of you or your site on NBC, or are you a 'secret' partner?
12:30 in the 3rd qtr





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