In-Game Win Probability

Note: During the pre-season the WP graphs will undergo development and testing. Real-time graphs will return for the regular season.


Create Advanced Stats Boxscore
QBWPAEPASR(%)Cmp%PassYdsSkIntAYPA
C.Kaepernick-0.280.444.758.3153222.2
RBWPAEPASR(%)AttYdsYPCRecRecYds
F.Gore0.09-0.823.111141.3117
K.Hunter0.020.233.33165.300
A.Dixon0.031.050.0210.500
WR/TEWPAEPASR(%)YPRRecYdsTgtsYPTCR(%)
A.Boldin-0.07-0.144.410.655395.955.6
M.Crabtree-0.47-1.044.413.045286.550.0
V.Davis0.170.333.38.021635.366.7
Q.Patton-0.02-0.30.02.01212.0100.0
V.McDonald0.041.2100.013.0113113.0100.0
O Line-WPA-EPASksSk YdsQB HitsTkls LossRunSR
SF-0.29-5.4261237.0
QBWPAEPASR(%)Cmp%PassYdsSkIntAYPA
R.Wilson0.02-3.431.464.0215406.7
RBWPAEPASR(%)AttYdsYPCRecRecYds
M.Lynch-0.12-0.440.0221095.000
R.Turbin-0.02-0.233.3263.019
WR/TEWPAEPASR(%)YPRRecYdsTgtsYPTCR(%)
D.Baldwin0.288.471.417.76106715.185.7
G.Tate0.121.750.07.843165.266.7
Z.Miller-0.01-2.025.08.332538.3100.0
J.Kearse0.202.720.022.024458.840.0
O Line-WPA-EPASksSk YdsQB HitsTkls LossRunSR
SEA-0.29-2.642210342.3

Defender+WPA+EPATklAsstTFSCPDFFInt
A.Brooks0.223.6 120.415000
A.Smith0.195.8 220.554010
N.Bowman0.165.7 681.939010
M.Wilhoite0.100.2 010.141000
E.Reid0.102.8 220.633000
D.Skuta0.102.2 100.142000
T.Brock0.092.4 510.962000

Defender+WPA+EPATklAsstTFSCPDFFInt
M.Smith0.605.1 220.615101
R.Sherman0.494.0 020.351100
K.Chancellor0.266.1 561.915201
M.Bennett0.267.3 120.684010
B.Wagner0.247.3 5102.279000
C.Avril0.225.2 100.231010
R.Bryant0.123.8 120.683000
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Greg said...
The missed call was on 4th down, a call that one way or the other directly changes possession. A missed call on 1st, 2nd, or even 3rd down changes very little. That missed call cost SF, at the very least, 3 more downs + 15 yards of field position. If that call is made correctly, any number of possibilities open up, including SF scoring and Seattle never scoring again. All of SF's turnovers came while in the position of trailing in score. SF was leading at the time that the call was missed. The missed call gave Seattle a chance to take the lead, which they did, forcing SF into high-risk play-calling, which did not favor them. To be honest, the hit on the kicker was a high-risk play on Seattle's part, which should have backfired, but thanks the officials, they got away with it.


vaujot said...
Well, I found the win probability calculator on the site. Up by four, with 18 Minutes to play and 1st down on the own 35 gives me a WP of 0.72 for SF. So, it was a 9% swing on that call, if I do this correctly. I guess, whether that would've been a heavy spike is up for debate. While true that things went downhill from there for SF, most of that was either there own or the Seahawks' doing.


Greg said...
Win percentage for was 63% (SF) after the missed roughing the kicker penalty. If the penalty was called correctly, it's 15 yards plus automatic 1st down. Safe to say win percentage would have spiked heavily in SF's favor. I don't think it's coincidence that nearly the entire game swung in Seattle's favor following that missed call (Seattle's TD came on the drive immediately following that call, followed by all 3 of SF's turnovers as well as the Bowman goal-line injury).


vaujot said...
What was the win-expactancy swing on the missed roughing the punter call (I think at 2:47 in the 3d quarter)?


ilikeflowers said...
@kyle I'm wondering if Harbaugh's comment was unwise. Boldin may have taken umbrage and might decide to sign with another desperate receiver-needy contender like the Panthers next season because of it. He's much more needed there. Or maybe Seattle!


LamKram said...
So the two #1 seeds never meet in the Superbowl. Except when they do...


ilikeflowers said...
I guess the Football God's decided that a Sherman-Boldin final battle wasn't necessary for us after such a great game. Would have been epic to see though. I'm thinking with Boldin it would have been an incompletion or a TD.


kyle said...
remember what harbaugh said about crabtree... it could have been a one read throw


noedne said...
I wonder if Carroll will ever tell Sherman to calm down.


Brian said...
I was thinking the same thing. Boldin catches that for the win, or at least prevents the int.


ilikeflowers said...
On that replay it looks like Sherman targeted the ball about 6 inches higher than Crabtree did. That's the kind of ball that Boldin would snatch at a higher point.


Devon said...
Hell of a game. Unfortunately, my team lost. Also, can't we all just agree that Richard Sherman is simultaneously the best CB in football and an asshole about it.


kyle said...
know*


kyle said...
cool, did not no that


Brian said...
It definitely shows up in my stats, both for EPA and WPA. It qualifies as a pass defended.
0:18 in the 4th qtr

kyle said...
he doesn't get a pd for that?
0:20 in the 4th qtr

ilikeflowers said...
That's the kind of play I'm talking about! Pass was on target, receiver had a chance, but the db's made great plays. Very enjoyable game minus that rough stretch.
0:22 in the 4th qtr

Jonathan said...
It won't show up in his stats but Sherman deserves an assist for that INT.
0:22 in the 4th qtr

noedne said...
I believe Brian has noted before that down by 6 is a great situation for teams because they use all 4 downs and don't get conservative.
0:55 in the 4th qtr

ilikeflowers said...
I thought that the QB's looked good today particularly Wilson until these last few drives with everything on the line. They're definitely a little yippy now though.
1:53 in the 4th qtr

Jonathan said...
Yeah neither QB has been particularly hot today.
2:00 in the 4th qtr

Juvenal said...
These qbs look jumpy and inexperienced. I think all the little costs of them over the game sometimes get forgotten due to the big plays.
2:00 in the 4th qtr

Doug said...
Niners offense**
3:37 in the 4th qtr

Doug said...
6 point lead, the way the niners defense has looked, should be safe
3:37 in the 4th qtr

Jonathan said...
Ehhhh the lead is in that 4-6 point range now, with plenty of time.
3:37 in the 4th qtr

Brian said...
Agree.
5:10 in the 4th qtr

ilikeflowers said...
should've saved that timeout
5:10 in the 4th qtr

ilikeflowers said...
That was a God awful throw. I don't want to see trash like that. Keep it a well-played game!
7:37 in the 4th qtr

Jonathan said...
So glad that they were stopped there, and I'm rooting for the Hawks.
8:18 in the 4th qtr

ilikeflowers said...
Of course, now that I think about it, the 9ers actually benefited from the blown call. On the goal line woulda been much tougher.
8:18 in the 4th qtr

Doug said...
LOL @ kyle
8:18 in the 4th qtr

Doug said...
That feels like overtime is inevitable
8:18 in the 4th qtr

kyle said...
if this game was a polygraph, dude would be all over the place
8:18 in the 4th qtr

Juvenal said...
Apparently there is a god of justice after all!
8:18 in the 4th qtr

ilikeflowers said...
Apparently the Football Gods decided to fix that blown call!
8:18 in the 4th qtr

noedne said...
No doubt possession will be reviewable next season.
8:18 in the 4th qtr

ilikeflowers said...
Ugh, that knee is RG3ish. Ridiculous that they can't review this.
8:54 in the 4th qtr

naeblis said...
His knee :( hopefully he is okay
8:54 in the 4th qtr

kyle said...
please no more replays of that injury
8:59 in the 4th qtr

ilikeflowers said...
That's a turnover! And a jacked up knee. 9ers can't complain about any calls after last week.
8:59 in the 4th qtr

Doug said...
You gotta go for that
8:59 in the 4th qtr

ilikeflowers said...
Huge plays everywhere in this game!
9:23 in the 4th qtr

ilikeflowers said...
Maybe the banged up line and playing the NFC West and South defenses during the season worked against him.
10:38 in the 4th qtr

kyle said...
no data to support that point, just an observation
12:46 in the 4th qtr

noedne said...
That 4th down TD had an incredible .31 WP swing.
13:30 in the 4th qtr

kyle said...
i feel like his receivers are high variance
13:44 in the 4th qtr

ilikeflowers said...
Everytime I watch Wilson play he's crazy accurate - even the misses are close. Are Seattles receivers that bad? Is my sample size too small?
13:44 in the 4th qtr

ilikeflowers said...
Yeah! A man's 4th down attempt!
13:52 in the 4th qtr

Cardlinger said...
That eventual IG call was a pretty big swing in WP. Great game, but as a fan it's making me sick.
15:00 in the 4th qtr

ilikeflowers said...
I'm loving this game. Hard-nosed, competitive, high degree of difficulty for the offense. Big plays made and missed by inches and the QB's are running for their lives.
2:47 in the 3rd qtr

Doug said...
And there it goes
6:29 in the 3rd qtr

Josh said...
Seattle's had a few instances of good luck, as well.
6:29 in the 3rd qtr

kyle said...
49ers game plan... make a few big plays/recover every fumble
6:29 in the 3rd qtr

Doug said...
9ers luck has to run out sometime...
6:29 in the 3rd qtr

cuchi said...
GO NINERS
14:55 in the 3rd qtr

naeblis said...
Intetesting to see That firdt TD, caused significant change, up down up. After the call back, then score
10:03 in the 2nd qtr

Josh said...
If it comes down to a field-position war, I think SF has a slight advantage with a smaller penalty rate.
5:43 in the 1st qtr

billy bob said...
hell yeah
12:45 in the 1st qtr





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